15 Minutes

Pregame stretch, 10.28.11

2011-10-27T19:59:00.000-07:00

OUT OF TIME

Big-time coaches keep making big-time mistakes

Each week, we continue to beamazed to see guys who are being paid millions of dollars to coach football games screw up the simplest of game management decisions: When to call timeout.

Last weekend, we saw three highlyregarded coaches – Pat Fitzgerald at Northwestern, Bret Bielema at Wisconsinand John Harbaugh of the Baltimore Ravens – make huge timeout errors that hurttheir teams or flat out cost them a win.
So, just as we had to do for Mike Tomlinon the two-point conversion (still waiting for our thank you card), we had tosit down and develop a little written primer for coaches on calling timeouts,specifically at the end of halves or games.

To get this right, you have tobegin at the end: What is your goal? What exactly do you want to happen on thelast play of the half or game? You gotta know that before you can make yourplan.

Once you know your goal, it’s amatter of gauging the situation and doing some quick math. You gauge the situationthusly:

> How many yards stand betweenyou and your goal?

> How much time between you andyour goal?

> How many timeouts do you haveleft? How many does your opponent have left?

The quick math comes in theserules of thumb:

> Three plays per 10 yards, onAVERAGE

> :07 per play, on AVERAGE

FITZGERALD’S FLUB

Many of these timeout blunderscome when coaches don’t consider those rules of thumb and call timeouts TOOEARLY. Enter Pat Fitzgerald and the Northwestern Wildcats, leading Penn State21-20 and driving for more, looking at a 1^st-and-10 at the PennState 15 with 1:41 left in the first half. Each team has all of its timeoutsremaining.

What is Northwestern’s goal? Well, it should be to score (preferablyat TD) on the last play of the half. However, with PSU’s timeouts still intact,that’s not something Northwestern had total control over, so a secondary goalshould be to force the opponent to use as many of those as possible before youscore.

"Hmmmmm, 36 x 2
divided by 3 ... why
can't I figure this out.
I went to Northwestern."

Now, onto the math:

With a first down on the 15, you’re probablytalking a max of six plays (three plays to make a first down at the 5 and thenthree goal-to-go plays) left for the Wildcats @ :07 each which equals about :42worth of game time, leaving :49 for between-play activities, enough time tohuddle on at least one and possibly two of the remaining plays. Combine thosefacts with the three timeouts Fitzgerald was holding and there was absolutelyno reason to feel rushed at all. In fact, the dynamic was just the opposite!The Wildcats wanted to run those plays at a pace measured to either end thehalf with a score or force Penn State to call its timeouts, lessening thelikelihood they could score if they did get the ball back.

So, what did they do…

1^st-and-10, 6-yard passto PSU 9, 1:34, NW huddles

Commentary: Perfect! Complete passkeeps the clock rolling, the team is now in an advantageous down-and-distancePLUS PSU doesn’t call its first timeout, indicating that the Nits might behappy just to get out of the half. This is going great!

2^nd-and-4, 1-yard runto the PSU 8, NW huddles

Commentary: Ah, you’d rather belooking at 3^rd-and-1 but 3^rd-and-3 is doable and you’reunder a minute now and still no indication Penn State is going to stop theclock, send in the play, bring the team to the line with :10 on the play clock,execute and you’re either first and goal with :30 left in the half or kicking afield goal and leaving about :24 for Penn State. Looking good an …… Fitzgeraldcalls time out. Wait? What? Why? You’re kidding!

No, we’re not. Facing a 3^rd-and-3at the Penn State 8 with 0:56 left in the first half, Pat Fitzgerald called atimeout that saved his opponent 30 seconds which it promptly used to score atouchdown and take control of the game after his team promptly threw an incomplete pass on third down. We assume Fitzgerald wanted some timeto consider the play call for third down, but if he’d have thought it throughhe’d have realized that was a much bigger risk than he realized.

BIELEMA’S BLUNDER

Now, onto Wisconsin, where Bielema’sBadgers had just mounted a valiant 14-point comeback to tie Michigan State at31-all with 1:26 remaining. After the kickoff, MSU had a 1^st-and-10at its own 22 with 1:19 left.

Sparty’s goal was obviously to driveand kick a field goal on the game’s final play. They would have needed to coverabout 48 yards and had two timeouts remaining. Figuring it needed to save onetimeout for the field goal attempt, MSU came out in hurry-up mode (out routes,if possible, spikes after completions, if necessary) and picked up a firstdown.

"Overtime?
We don't need no
stinking overtime."

   As soon as Sparty grabbed thatinitial first down, Wisky’s goal should have been to get the game to overtime –and maybe it was, but the next play, a 10-yard sack of MSU quarterback KirkCousins, changed all that. With Sparty facing a 2^nd-and-20 from its24 with :42 left, Bielema made a snap judgment and called timeout. It FELT likethe right thing to do, but if he’d had thought it through, he’d have realizedthen it was a mistake.
   In calling a timeout, Bielema waschanging his goal to “get the ball back and kick a field goal to win on thegame’s final play.” But the math just doesn’t add up. Bielema would have had touse his final two timeouts after second and third down in order to force a punt(which take about 2 seconds longer than normal plays) which would set him up aroundhis own 30-35 with no timeouts and about :19 left, time for three plays. Whilethat’s certainly not an impossible scenario, the potential reward is not worththe tradeoff of leaving MSU in a similar situation with TWICE AS MUCH TIME!!!!
    But, as we said, that first timeout was calledon instinct, it felt right. By the time MSU got 12 yards on second down to setup a 3^rd-and-8, Bielema certainly had enough time to think itthrough ….AND HE CALLED TIMEOUT AGAIN with :30 left!!! DOH!!!! You do the math,the second down play took :12 off the clock and added 12 yards to the MSU punt.Now he was looking at getting the ball around his own 20-25 with :14 left andno timeouts!!! We’re sorry for all the exclamation points but what was thatdude thinking!!!!! Not about the right stuff, that’s for sure.
   Conventionalwisdom says the “Hail Mary” pass that eventually won the game for Michigan Statewas “just a fluke” or “just one of those things,” but it sure seemed like somecosmic payback from the game management gods to us.

HARBAUGH’S HORROR

It was the best of times. It wasthe worst of times. It was the final three minutes of Monday night’sRavens-Jaguars game. As a game management junkie, we were horrified by JohnHarbaugh’s total cluelessness about a football game he could have won. As aSteelers fan, we were giddy. Let’s review, shall we.

"Who's on second?
I don't know.
Third base!"

The near-comatose Ravens offensewas trailing 9-0 and slogging downfield with the urgency of Mr. Snuffleleupagus.The announcers decried the purple pace but it was actually EXACTLY the rightstrategy, even if it wasn’t intentional. At that point, the Ravens goal was toscore a touchdown to tie, make one defensive stop, get the ball back and kick afield goal on the game’s final play to win. And the absolute best way toachieve that would have been to score that touchdown one play before the twominute warning. That’s because the Ravens only had two timeouts left sopreserving that third clock stoppage would save them :40 seconds on the otherside while playing defense. So, when Joe Flacco found Anquan Boldin flashingopen at the back of the end zone and the clock read 2:02, we actually saw thisline score flash in our head:

Kickoff out of end zone 2:02 (Remember,your kicker leads the league in touchbacks)

1^st-and-10 2yd run 1:57(2-minute warning)

2^nd-and-08 1yd run 1:51(second timeout)

3^rd-and-07 2yd run 1:45(third timeout)

Punting from 25, 40 yard net

1^st-and-10, 35 yd line,1:38 left, need FG to win

“Wow,” we thought. “Pretty slick workby the Ravens.” And then we heard Mike Tirico say, “It looks like the Ravensare lining up for an onside kick.” Wait? What? Why? Didn’t they read the linescore above? Didn’t anyone try to explain this to John Harbaugh? Why would yourisk an onside kick where the result would be getting the ball at the 45 with1:57 left when there’s a MUCH SAFER way to get the ball at the 35 with 1:38left? Madness, pure madness.
Of course, the Ravens didn’t getthe onside kick, the Jaguars kicked a field goal and the Ravens wound up withthe ball at their own 20 with 1:43 left needing a touchdown to win. Joe Flacco’sinterception sealed their fate and maybe Flacco would have thrown thatinterception anyway had they managed the clock the right way, but we don’t think so.Good strategy begets good results and vice versa.

Illinios (6-2) vs. PennState (7-1)
3:30 p.m. Saturday, ABC/ESPN2

Announcers: CarterBlackburn, Brock Huard and Lisa Salters

Annoyancefactor: Blackburn and Huardare relatively new talking heads as far as Penn State football is concerned. Onone hand, that’s good. On the other hand, that often means we’ll hear EVERY JoePaterno story and cliché for the 10 millionth time because it’s new to them.Salters is a Penn State grad so she must be good.

Line: PennState -5
Smarts say: Priorto last week, this line was projected by some services as a “pick ‘em” butSaturday’s results created a huge swing (which might mean the Illini are a goodbet here). With an over/under of 40.5, we’re looking at 23-17 Nits by thebookies.

The pick:ThisPenn State season is starting to have a very peculiar feel to it, almost as ifthe team is becoming bulletproof, even to self-inflicted wounds. The Nits couldvery easily be 4-4 with 2-6 not out of the question, but they’re 7-1 andsuddenly we’re noticing what’s right about this team (plenty) more than what’swrong with it (which is still plenty). Every bit of conventional wisdom we canmuster says Rob Bolden should not get a shot in this game absent a Matt McGloininjury. But we think he’s going to get a few series and we have a crazy feelinghe’s going to make a big play.….PSU 24-17.
Last week: Wesplit, having picked Penn State to win but not cover. That brings us to 5-3 against the spread and 7-1straight up.

New England at Pittsburgh
4:15 p.m. Sunday, CBS

Announcers: JimNantz and Phil Simms
Annoyancefactor: In recent years, this one-sided matchup has proven to be awet dream for Nantz, the nation’s No. 1 Steelers hater. On Twitter Sunday,we’ll track all the veiled and not-so-veiled shots Nantz takes at Pittsburghduring this game.

Referee: MikeCarey
Competencefactor: The NFL’s officials are having a very, very bad year and lastweek was a microcosm with flags everywhere in Arizona, accusations of downrightcheating in the Jets-Chargers game and another prime time debacco, this time byReferee Carl Cheffers crew, which missed no fewer than five calls in theJacksonville-Baltmore game. So, it is with great trepidation that we say Carey’screw brings a good reputation with it into Pittsburgh Sunday.

The line: NewEngland -3
Smarts say: Youknow we thought this line was going to be higher than this, but it opened at-2.5 and has only gone up a half a point meaning there’s just slightly moremoney going down on the Pats. Frankly, we don’t know what games any of y’allare watching. The over/under of 51 means something in the range of 27-24Patriots.

The pick: Asfar as we’re concerned, the ONLY way you can pick the Steelers in this game isif you admit is a pure hunch. Beyond that, we challenge anyone to tell us whatspecifically has changed with the Steelers personnel or schemes that will allowthem to better handle Tom Brady, Wes Welker and those damned tight ends thanthey have in the past. It’s a matchup nightmare for Pittsburgh, blitz and thePats will pick it up and Brady will find whichever tight end Larry Foote orJames Farrior is trying to cover. Lay off the blitzes and try to shut down thetight ends with Lawrence Timmons and Troy Polamalu and Brady will find Bill Gaytrying to cover Wes Welker in the slot. Are we saying the Steelers CAN’T winthis game? Of course not. We’ve seen plenty evidence already that somethingflukey can happen to even the best of teams and players. But it would be afluke and we’re not forecasting one … Patriots 34-23.
Last week: Wehad the Steelers wining an covering and were right on both counts, moving us to5-2 straight up and 4-3 vs. the spread.

Thinking through going for two...

2011-09-24T17:42:00.000-07:00

   (Blogger's note: This position paper on the two-point conversion first appeared in our "15 Minutes" blog in early 2009 as an open letter to Mike Tomlin. This was shortly after Tomlin went for two twice early in the fourth quarter of a playoff game, failed twice, and wound up losing by two points to the Jaguars. It still applies weekly as NFL coaches mistakenly decide to go for two based solely on math, rather than examining the big picture. It should be noted that we have no problem with a coach going for two early in the game if he's fully aware that he's gambling or playing a hunch. The conversion rate for two-point conversions can vary widely from year to year, sometimes even getting above 50 percent for a small sample of games. But the 43 percent figure used below is widely accepted as the rate over a longer period of time. The conversion rate for extra point kicks is consistently between 98 and 99 percent. The argument below was specifically constructed for NFL games, it still holds for Division I college games but does not really apply to any level of football below that, where extra points are a considerably more risky proposition.)
    First and foremost, you have to consider the two-point conversion a classic risk-reward proposition but with a twist. Is the risk that is DEFINITELY involved worth the POTENTIAL reward? Those words are in all caps because they're important. You're absolutely taking a chance and there's no guarantee it will pay off.
     But there's a third part to this proposition that must be considered. Is the risk that is DEFINITELY involved worth the POTENTIAL reward AND the forfeiture of an ALMOST-CERTAIN lesser reward? In other words, not only are you taking a risk that only pays off about 43 times out of every 100 attempts but you're bypassing a lesser reward (the extra point kick) that pays off 98 times out of every 100 attempts.
     The math here is simple: If you go for 100 two-point conversions and I go for 100 extra point kicks, you're going to wind up with 86 points and I'm going to wind up with 98 points. I win by almost two touchdowns. That alone should convince coaches to eschew the two-point conversion in all but the most desperate situations. Sadly, it doesn't.
     Secondly, and even more importantly, please remember that two-point conversion decisions are matters of BOTH mathematics and chronology, BOTH, not one or the other. So many coaches keep a cheat sheet handy that deals with only the mathematical side of the two-point decision but they totally forget or give very little thought to chronological side. Put simply, you should only go for two points if BOTH mathematics and time dictate.
     While the devil's in the details here, we can summarize everything we've said so far thusly: The high risk of failing on a two-point conversion is never warranted unless time is of the essence. Repeat after me: The high risk of failing on a two-point conversion is never warranted unless time is of the essence.
     So how do we determine if time is of the essence? It's fairly simple once you think about it, a little bit of judgment and a little bit of math:

     If it is mathematically sound to pursue a two-point conversion, you should only do so once the point deficit you're trying to create is equal to the points you could score in the number of possessions you believe you have left.
     Or, to put that in game terminology, you should only go for a two-point conversion to get you within X points when there's only enough time left to score X points.
     The variables here (number of timeouts each team has, offensive game or defensive game?) are such that you can't do an exact chart for this decision, but you could do a rough chart that looked something like this:

Deficit created    Timeframe to consider
by successful
two-pointer

3                        0:15 to 2:00 remaining in fourth quarter
8                     2:00 to   4:00 "
11                        4:00 to   6:00 "
16                        6:00 to   8:00 "
19                        8:00 to 10:00 "
24                     10:00 to 12:00 "

     Note: The logic applied here holds for the opposite side of the ledger, as well, when to go for two when you are AHEAD, but the decisions there are much more complicated. We'll simplify to say that you should ALWAYS go for two to give yourself a 3-point or 7-point lead if you think your opponent only has ONE POSSESSION left.
     It's important to remember that following this logical, rational method doesn't ensure you'll win games (you have to actually make the conversion to do that), but it does ensure that you will give yourself the absolute best chance to score as many points as you can every time every game.

     To recap:
     Ask yourself?
     Is the risk that is DEFINITELY involved worth the POTENTIAL reward AND the forfeiture of an ALMOST-CERTAIN lesser reward.
     Remember:
     The high risk of failing on a two-point conversion is never warranted unless time is of the essence.
   Apply it:
     If it is mathematically sound to pursue and two-point conversion, you should only do so once the point deficit you're trying to create is equal to the points you could score in the number of possessions you believe you have left.

Music Monday: Oscar losers

2011-02-28T03:35:00.000-08:00

Some times a train wreck is a good thing. But the train wreck that was the 2011 Oscars broadcast doesn't fall into that category. To help get the taste out of your mouth, here are three Oscar-nominated best original songs that didn't claim the gold statuette but still found a place in pop culture history.

“Unchained Melody” (1955)

Music, Alex North; Lyrics, Hy Zaret; Vocals, Todd Duncan

> Very few realize one of the most recorded songs of all time was actually written for a little-known prison film (“Unchained”) a full 10 years before the Righteous Brothers legendary cover.

> Lost to “Love is a Many Splendored Thing” from the eponymous film

“What’s New Pussycat” (1965)
Music and words, Burt Bacharach and Hal David; Vocals, Tom Jones

> When a song has been used in not one, but two episodes of “The Simpsons,” you know it’s a cultural signpost, as is the eponymous film that launched Woody Allen’s acting career.

> Lost to “The Shadow of Your Smile” from “The Sandpiper”

As an aside, here’s the hilarious John Mulaney bit on the song.

“Ben” (1972)
Music, Walter Scharf; Lyrics Don Black; Vocals Michael Jackson
> A touching ballad about a killer rat -- from a movie about a killer rat that was the sequel to another killer rat film -- sung by 13-year-old Michael Jackson when we was still African American and fully nosed and recorded on the Motown label. Um …. God Bless America.

> Lost to “The Morning After” from “The Poseidon Adventure”

TV Tuesday: Rediscovering "The Sopranos"

2011-02-22T05:27:00.000-08:00

We’ve experienced one relatively pleasant side effect to the Pittsburgh Steelers still-crushing-and-unable-to-talk-about-it loss in Super Bowl XLV. After such a game, we’re unable to watch or read national sports coverage for days maybe weeks. So, we switched off “Mike and Mike” in the early mornings and discovered A&E airs back-to-back episodes of “The Sopranos” every weekday morning. Now, going on three weeks after the big game, we’re back to reading ESPN.com and SI.com, but we’ve stuck with Tony and the boys before work.

The past three weeks have taken us quickly through Season 3, when David Chase began taking “The Sopranos” from must-see television to art. When Christopher is “made” (“shoot your cuffs”) in the Season 3 opener, along with Eugene Pontecorvo, he notices a crow on the windowsill at the ceremony. It’s a harbinger of doom that doesn’t pay off until Season 6 when both men’s deaths serve a critical signposts steering Tony Soprano toward his eventual demise in “Made In America.”

That’s right, we said it. Tony Soprano was assassinated in a New Jersey diner by a man wearing a Members Only jacket in the final scene of the series as the camera faded and “Don’t Stop Believing” played on the jukebox. Something that seemed so controversial and open to interpretation when it happened seems so obvious now, given the clear thinking afforded by a little time away from the series.

If you want to argue about it, you can argue with this guy, who’s devoted about 12,000 words to supporting his theory that Tony was killed in “Made In America.”

Originally, we supported the idea that the final scene was open ended and open for interpretation, but the final detail that changed our mind came in the 2008 interview Chase gave where he revealed he wanted the show to end with 30 seconds of black screen then the HBO logo but was overruled by network execs who insisted on credits rolling after about 10 seconds of black screen. We think if HBO would have allowed Chase’s ending to run, there’d have been much less confusion about what happened in “Made In America.” That’s also likely why Chase has refused to elaborate on the ending. He told them so.

Around the tube:

> HBO has made the full first season of “Deadwood” available On Demand for a limited time. If you always wanted to but never got around to it, now would be a good time.

> Unfortunately, the final season of “Big Love” has not delivered on the promise to restore the show to its mid-run glory. The show lost its edge when it lost its villain (Harry Dean Stanton’s magnificently malevolent Roman Grant) and continues to slog through an unlikely polygamists-are-people-too storyline that is going nowhere interesting fast. Mercifully, only four episodes of “Big Love” remain with the series finale airing March 20. But before it goes, let’s remember how good this show once was. Sigh.

> On the other hand, we are really digging Robert Irvine’s new Food Network show, “Restaurant Impossible,” where the sharp-tongued chef makes over a bad restaurant (management, menu, décor, service, marketing) on a $10,000 budget. It airs Wednesdays at 10 p.m. with frequent repeats through the week.

Music Monday: "Go Go Boots" review and Mp3some...

2011-02-20T16:50:00.001-08:00

Country music purists often lament that music that would have been considered rock’n’roll in the 1970’s passes for country now. How ironic is it then that Drive-By Truckers, a band some critics call “the last great American rock band,” just released one of the great country albums of the year.

And make no mistake, the majority of the tracks on “Go Go Boots,” DBT’s 11^th album, are not the edgy country-rock stompers that made the band the poster children for a genre dubbed “y’allternative” (predominant on last year’s “sister” album, “The Big To Do”). This is an album that evokes George Jones, Conway Twitty and Faron Young in their primes, with a touch of Muscle Shoals soul thrown in for good measure.

“The Weakest Man”

Mike Cooley at his best:

“Everybody Needs Love”

A surprising vocal turn from Patterson Hood, covering Muscle Shoals great Eddie Hinton:

“Used to Be a Cop”

What would a DBT album be without a little spooky southern goth?:

Tuneful Tuesday: The Twilight Singers and DBT

2011-02-15T03:56:00.000-08:00

Today is about the best Tuesday ever as you can wash the stench of the Grammys out of your ears with not one, but two new albums dropping today from two of the greatest rock'n'roll bands in the world, bands who record actual albums with thought put into the the tracks included and their order, you know, like they used to do before there were such things as Napster and iTunes.

All of The Twilight Singers "Dynamite Steps" is streaming for FREE right now at Spin.com. You can click here to listen (but not if you're at the Altoona Mirror because I put out that memo about not streaming content online during high-volume work hours). You can view the video for the first single, "On the Corner," by clicking here. If you're not aware, The Twilight Singers emerged from the ashes of the Afghan Whigs 10 years ago as an ever-shifting collection of studio talent surrounding the inimitable Greg Dulli. At its heart, the band is a bunch of white guys paying homage to Dulli's Motown and Stax obsession. Guests on the album include Ani DiFranco, Joseph Arthur, Petra Haden, Nick McCabe of The Verve and Dulli soulmate Mark Lanegan.

No one would ever confuse the Muscle Shoals stomp of the Drive-By Truckers with the soulful swagger of Dulli and Co., but the two bands share an unmistakable passion rooted in great songwriting. The Truckers' Patterson Hood and Mike Cooley are at the absolute top of their game on the band's 11th album, "Go Go Boots." There's a link of the DBT website intro page to get a free download of "Used to Be a Cop" and if you hurry you can still get a free download of "Everybody Needs Love" using this link at Amazon.com. To top off this perfect Tuesday, the Truckers will be performing live tonight on "Late Night with Jimmy Fallon."

Music Monday mp3some: Valentine's Day

2011-02-14T04:16:00.000-08:00

“Valentine’s Day,” Bruce Springsteen

Most people love arena Bruuuuuuccccce, he of the big anthems and big arrangements, but we L-O-V-E “Nebraksa” Bruce, “Ghost of Tom Joad” Bruce, the thoughtful, fragile man behind a piano or strumming an acoustic guitar. This is one of the overlooked gems from “Tunnel of Love.”(Click the song titles to see the YouTube videos.)

“Valentine’s Day,” Steve Earle

Steve Earle is not only an amazingly talent and diverse artist. He’s an amazing music historian. His weekly show, “Hardcore Troubadour,” on Sirius/XM 63, is surprising and horizon-expanding must-listen radio. Earle is also a prodigious husband, having been married seven times. That’s a man who knows a thing or two about Valentine’s Day.

“My Funny Valentine,” Chet Baker
More than 20 years after his death, Baker remains an elusive junkie/genius, his spirit haunting the edges of pop culture. This Rodgers and Hart staple has been covered by hundreds of artists, but none owned it like Baker.

Valentine's verse: John Haag

2011-02-11T04:18:00.000-08:00

It was nineteen hundred and eighty-four and we were in need of three fine arts credits when we stumbled quite accidentally into a poetry class at University Park taught by John Haag.

It took us about 30 seconds to deduce we were in the presence of a crazy, old loon. It took about us about five minutes to deduce we were in the presence of greatness.

He hated nearly everything we wrote (and he was right, of course): too safe, too pretentious. We loved everything he wrote: free and daring and fresh.

We’re sure Haag hated the sappy sentiment and crass commercialism of Valentine’s Day. But here’s his contribution anyway:

From Another Country, With Love

By John Haag

To get here grab the next

miracle out of town,

step down

at the parting of the ways,

kiss it all goodbye,

slip the mind

into high gear and drive

straight over the edge.

if possible, bypass Hell –

if not, whatever you do,

stop for no red lights,

and don’t look at the map

– it lies

Once through,
turn inside out and hold your heart

in both hands, like a compass.

It will point to me.

SBXLV fallout: Is Arians done?

2011-02-09T04:18:00.000-08:00

There’s considerable legitimate buzz building that the Steelers will soon part ways with their current offensive coordinator. If they do, this could be his epitaph:

Bruce Arians

Steelers offensive coordinator

2007-2011

Sack/strip, Safety, Pick 6

Those are the results of three critical plays during the Steelers just-completed postseason:

> 2011 Divisional Playoffs vs. Baltimore: Pittsburgh had one possession that started inside its own 10 at the 4; 4 plays, 1 penalty, 7 yards; Result: Sack/strip/Ravens TD.

> 2011 AFC Championship vs. New York: Pittsburgh had one possession that started inside its own 10 at the 1; 1 play, -1 yards; Result: Fumble/Jets safety.

> Super Bowl XLV vs. Green Bay: Pittsburgh had one possession that started inside its own 10 at the 7; 1 play, 0 yards; Result: Pick 6 thrown under heavy pressure.

Three postseason games. Three possessions deep in their own territory. Three disastrous results.

There’s certainly more involved, but it seems fair to say that Arians’ offense – heavy on multiple receiver sets, light on power running and almost totally absent any kind of inside screen game – is built to fail in such situations.

And nowhere was that more evident than on this play (<--- click to watch the play first, this is an interactive blog).

Note the precarious field position. Note the dangerous pass rusher wearing #55 in purple. Note the protection scheme: five offensive linemen, no back, no tight end, no help. This was easy pickings for Terrell Suggs – and a terrible call by Arians.

Yes, absolutely, personnel (or lack thereof) and execution are part of the issue, but the basic problem here is that when his offense needs a clutch play deep in its own territory, Arians has very few options that don’t involve four or five receivers.

Flash forward three weeks to the Super Bowl and a similar predicament. This time, the Steelers come out with two tight ends and an I-back, the classic formation for power football and … send all three of those players into pass patterns and throw deep. Again, if someone blocks Howard Green perhaps the pass is completed for a big play and we’re not having this discussion or writing this blog. But the same general dynamic still holds. In the most tenuous of circumstances, Arians calls a high-risk pass play with five players running patterns.
It should be noted the playoff safety against the Jets came on a muffed snap on a QB sneak and it's certainly hard to blame that on anyone but the center. However, the scene was set for the playoff safety by the safety the Jets recorded in the regular season game where Arians called a risky delayed handoff deep in his own territory. (Again, if Chris Kemoatu blocks Jason Taylor on that play, it might have gone big, and that's the nature of high-risk plays. When they work, they win you games. When they blow up, the cost you jobs.)

Adding fuel to the Arians rumors this time is the fact that his contract is up.

It’s no secret that Arians and Mike Tomlin don’t have the best relationship, but they’ve been ultra-professional working together. Arians and Ben Roethlisberger, on the other hand, have a close professional and personal relationship. But after Roethlisberger’s Super Bowl flameout (his second horrid performance in the big game in three tries), that might actually work against Arians this time.

The final piece of the puzzle (and this is TOTAL speculation on our part) might come in the form of free-agent offensive genius Brad Childress, last seen unsuccessfully trying to wrest control of the Vikings back from Brett Favre. (It’s fair to note at this point that we think Arians is an offensive genius, too, just not the right offensive genius for the Steelers.)

Before he failed as a head coach, Childress was one of the most successful offensive coordinators in the league. When he was named the Vikings coach, his first hire was a young coach named Mike Tomlin. Childress has had four or five OC interviews this offseason, but curiously hasn’t taken any of the jobs. We’ll file that under “Things That Make You Go Hmmmmmm” and sit back and watch how this plays out.

Super Bowl XLV wrap: Green Bay 31, Pittsburgh 25

2011-02-07T06:37:00.000-08:00

TEXAS TOAST
Mistake-prone Steelers burnt in big game in Dallas

The lede:

> In one of the spookiest Super Bowl omens of all time, Pittsburgher Christina Aguilera botched the National Anthem before the big game in Dallas Sunday. The hometown Steelers followed suit with three critical turnovers that the Green Bay Packers turned into 21 points en route to a 31-25 win and the storied franchise's lucky 13th NFL championship.

It was over when:

> Ben Roethlisberger and Mike Wallace were rarely on the same page all evening, including a final fourth-down misfire with just under a minute left that sealed the win for Green Bay. Wallace argued for pass interference on the play, but replay showed a well-timed play by the Packers’ Tramon Williams.

Play of the day:

> The Steelers have all the momentum entering the fourth quarter after a Packers’ punt penalty forced a short second kick. But the team’s chances for a seventh Super Bowl title were deflated on the first play of the final frame when a relatively benign looking hit by Clay Matthews popped the ball free from Rashard Mendenhall, who had been having a big game up to that point. The ball lay on the Cowboys Stadium turf for what seemed like a maddening eternity as several Steelers were unaware it was loose, before Green Bay fell on it and Aaron Rodgers made it hurt.

Zebra hunting:

> It wasn’t the worst officiated game of the year and it certainly didn’t play a role in the outcome, but the all-star crew fronted by Referee Walt Anderson was so-so, at best. They called two phantom penalties on the Steelers (a block in the back on Chris Kemoeatu where there was no contact and a hold on Flozell Adams were there was no hold) and one on the Packers (a facemask where there was none).

Hot topics:

> The Steelers turnovers will get most of the attention but it says here that two smaller mistakes in the first quarter --a false start by David Johnson that short-circuited a promising drive and the awful push in the back by Ryan Mundy on the punt return that pinned the Steelers deep in their own territory and set up the Roethlisberger Pick 6 – really set the tone for Pittsburgh’s subpar effort.
> Speaking of Mundy’s penalty, Keyaron Fox might have one-upped him in the bonehead department with his silly shove after the whistle on the Steelers final kickoff return. The Steelers special teams were marginally better this year under first-year Coach Al Everest, but they had to be close to the league leader in penalties on kicks and that’s gotta be cleaned up.

Game (mis)management:

> Not a great day for Pittsburgh in this department as they burned two timeouts early in the second half, one when Roethlisberger didn’t like what he saw on a crucial third-down play and one on a botched defensive substitution, that they obviously could have used in the final two minutes. Also, Tomlin’s decision to allow Shaun Suisham to attempt a 52-yard-field late in the third quarter will come under a lot of scrutiny.

Paralysis by analysis:
> The best we can say for Joe Buck and Troy Aikman is that they avoided any major gaffes. Buck kept it low key and Aikman was his usual vanilla self, offering very little insight into why the Steelers were having success running against the Packers giant defensive line or why Jordy Nelson became the key receiver against the Steelers defensive scheme.

And now a word from our sponsors:

> Honestly, when the Steelers are playing we have a hard time watching the spots so this is strictly shallow analysis.
> We had been drinking Pepsi Max the past few weeks, but we think we’ll quit after those mean-spirited, clueless ads.
> We loved the CARMAX ad where the full-service team from the 1950's came out to work on the dude's car and he thought he was being carjacked.

Sweet tweets:

@ESPNMichelle: Dear Fox. The shot of C Diaz feeding A Rod popcorn forced an unwanted regurgitation episode. Please do not do that again.

@CdrEck: Seriously, I saw less blood in Afghanistan. What is with that turf?

@SethMcFarlane: This Super Bowl halftime event looks like the talent show from “Revenge of the Nerds.”

@SportsGuy33: Despite all the injuries in the first half, Roger Goodell has decided to extend this game to 6 quarters.

@JimWexell: Bad call on the facemask, but he deserved it for the ugly tattoos.

We were (half) right:

> In our Super Bowl gameday poll (for amusement only), we had the Packers with 21 points at halftime and 31 at the end of the game. Bingo! Of course, we had the Steelers with 14 at halftime and 35 at the end of game.

We were wrong:
> We weren’t alone here, but we said many times beforehand that if the Steelers could get the game into the fourth quarter and get the ball in Roethlisberger’s hands in the final two minutes they’d win. Obviously not, and now we’re left talking about a quarterback who’s come up small in two of his three Super Bowls.

> We also thought LaMarr Woodley would have a big game against Bryan Bulaga, but the rookie from Iowa was stout.

SBXLV: 5 quick slants

2011-02-06T19:48:00.000-08:00

Five reasons the Steelers lost Super Bowl XLV

Ben was bad
Roethlisberger was off target from the start and never found a rhythm. Obviously, his arm was hit on the Pick 6, but the ball he underthrew when Mike Wallace was wide open going to the pylon late in the third quarter was the killer. For as clutch as he's been so many times, he's now 2-for-3 in stinking up the Super Bowl. We will add this caveat: He obviously injured his himself pretty seriously when his leg bent at funky angle in the first half on that brutal Cowboys Stadium turf.

Wallace was weak
While he's come a long way in two years, Mike Wallace has a long way to go mentally to be an elite receiver in the NFL. On the Pick 6, he was totally oblivious to the underthrow and didn't even attempt to become a defender on the play. Several times he and Roethlisberger clearly weren't on the same page route-wise and several more Wallace didn't seem to have any idea what his route was. He gave away several running plays in the first half, by not running a route at all.

The turnover equation

We tweeted it Sunday morning -- after 336 hours and billions of written words of pregame analysis, nine times out of 10 the team with the fewest turnovers wins -- and it proved true Sunday evening. Obviously, the two INTs hurt, but the Steelers were going to win that game if they scored on the first drive of the fourth quarter and Rashard Mendenhall's weak fumble was a dagger.

Game mismanagement

Mike Tomlin's staff did not have a stellar effort either, burning two timeouts early in the second half (one on an incorrect defensive substitution) then going for that insane 52-yard field goal. It doesn't really fit in this category but Keyaron Fox should be made to walk home from Dallas for that stupid penalty on the final kickoff.

The Packers were better

When it mattered most, Green Bay made the plays that win big games and the Steelers did not. Brian Bulaga handled LaMarr Woodley, Aaron Rodgers made about seven throws that sailed less than an inch over Steelers defenders' fingertips, Greg Jennings was nails and Tramon Williams made a great play on the ball on the Steelers final offensive play. If Gordy Nelson and James Jones don't drop a bunch of passes the final score could easily have been 48-28.

SBXLV Pregame Stretch...

2011-02-04T07:11:00.000-08:00

At a glance

Pittsburgh Steelers (14-4) vs. Green Bay Packers (13-6)

6:30 p.m. Sunday, FOX

Broadcasters: Joe Buck and Troy Aikman

Annoyance factor: Moderate. When you get used to the same five or six voices doing your team’s games all year, it’s sometimes nice to hear a fresh perspective. But in Joe Buck’s case that unfamiliarity also increases the potential for misidentification, which he struggled with in the NFL Championship game. Despite a glowing profile recently on HBO’s “Real Sports,” we don’t get the appeal of Aikman as an analyst. He’s too offense-centric for our taste and he rides that “I used to be a quarterback” gimmick for all it’s worth. We’d be hard pressed to get into our Top 5 list.

On the bright side: Fox's best asset, former NFL refereeing guru Mike Pereira, will be in the booth to offer his insight into key rulings and replay challenges.

Of special interest: Terry Bradshaw's interview with Ben Roethlisberger will air between 5:30 and 6 p.m.

Referee: Walt Anderson

Competence factor: Marginal. Anderson has worked one other Super Bowl (XXXV) and numerous conference championship games. His regular-season crew is known to flag a ton of pass interference penalties but he’ll be working with an all-star crew here. Anderson worked the Week 6 game this year between the Steelers and Browns, with his crew not flagging James Harrison for either of two violent hits that, of course, ended up changing the course of NFL history. Some Steelers fans might remember Anderson as the referee who got on his hands and knees to check a measurement last season against the Browns, eventually giving the Steelers a critical first down although the TV view seemed to show the ball being several chain links short. After the game, Anderson said the TV shot was an “optical illusion” and the ball “crossed the plane of the stake.”

Smarts say: Steelers +3

Why: Why indeed? We’ve heard a lot of people, not just Steelers fans wondering about this line and thinking it should have been closed to “pick ‘em” or even have the Steelers favored. But the fact that it’s shifted only a half point in each direction since it was first set two weeks ago indicates it served its purpose, getting about even money on both sides of it. We truly believe this line was primarily set based on the belief bettors would be driven by Aaron Rodgers performance against Atlanta in the Georgia Dome and the fact this game will be played in a dome.

The end of the (football) world as we know it…?

As if you weren’t already going to be glued to your television screen Sunday evening, you might want to pay closer attention to this game for a couple of potential historical reasons.

First, and most obviously, this will be the final game of the salary cap era in the NFL, which began in 1994 and produced unprecedented parity and player movement. When the dust from the upcoming labor war in the NFL clears, there will still be a salary cap, no doubt, but the new collective bargaining agreement will almost certainly contain several new provisions that will drive the game in new directions.

Second, and most pessimistically on our part, we think in a generation or so this game might be remembered (especially if it’s a highly competitive game) as the point where the NFL’s popularity peaked. It’s a plain fact that the sport can’t keep growing forever and we think there are at least enough potential clouds on the horizon to consider it might be heading for a considerable downhill run after Sunday.

Let’s start with labor unrest. We’ve heard it said many times that there’s just “too much money involved” for players and owners to be stupid enough to fail to reach a compromise on a new labor agreement before the 2011 season begins. But we’ll turn the question around and ask this rhetorically: Can you cite one example of any behavior this year exhibited by the league, the owners or the players union to convince you they are smart enough to work this out? Crickets. Chirping.

Next in line, we have the unchecked use of performance enhancing drugs begetting unprecedented violence in the game. You know how we feel about the effort this year to reduce violent hits. It was poorly conceived, poorly administered and disingenuous. But that doesn’t mean the NFL doesn’t need to do something to reduce violent hits. It does – desperately, The game is heading toward a nationally televised death on the field and all involved know it. But they’re never going to truly fix the problem until they address the use of performance enhancers (which is only part of the issue, but a key part) and there’s no easy fix there. Drug cheats have always been one step ahead of drug tests and that’s not going to change. But the money involved in pro sports now encourages more and more athletes to grab a pharmaceutical edge and a fat paycheck. We think 75 percent of NFL players use. We have no scientific facts to back that up except for our knowledge of human nature and our two eyes. All the evidence you need is there every Sunday if you look for it. How many seasons in a row does some journeyman have to come out of nowhere to lead the league in sacks before a light bulb goes off? Absent a steroid solution, the NFL is going to become just too ultraviolent to remain in the mainstream.

Next in line is a surprise contender for knock the NFL down a few pegs and that’s the unintended consequence of social media usage among players and fans. The league, its teams and its coaches used to be able to exhibit a lot of control over the amount of information about their team that was released to fan via the media. As so many other people are discovering, social media (Twitter, in this case) removes that filter and allows direct interaction between news makers and news receivers. The result? You remember the ESPN fictional (ahem…) drama “Playmakers” that the NFL worked so hard to have cancel. Well, if you play your follows right, you can watch a real-life version of “Playmakers” on Twitter just about every night.

And last, but by no means least, there’s the man charged with keeping it all together amongst the chaos of this chaotic age, our favorite smarmy, short-sighted commissioner, Mr. Roger Goodell. Goodell showed once again this week that he doesn’t have a clue as he decided to publicly discuss some of the private interviews he did with players while exploring what punishment to assess in the Ben Roethlisberger case. Even the most lowly middle manager at your neighborhood supermarket knows that you don’t discuss the details of personnel matters publicly. It’s an offense that can get you disciplined or fired at most companies. In our clueless media society (we’re looking at you, Peter King), it got Goodell a glowing profile in Sports Illustrated. That isolated incident illustrates the larger problem with Goodell, he’s entirely too concerned with looking right than being right. And we fear that approach, coupled with the serious problems facing the game, is a recipe for disaster.

So … enjoy.

The Gibson gamble

We think just about all Steelers fans were OK with Mike Tomlin and Kevin Colbert gambling on the outside chance that Aaron Smith could get healthy enough to play in the AFC Championship game or Super Bowl. But now that they've lost that gamble, it's time to turn our focus to what they wagered: Thaddeus Gibson.

Gibson, the fourth-round draft pick from Ohio State, was the player left unprotected because Smith had to occupy an active roster spot. The 49ers, then coached by Mike Singletary, quickly snapped Gibson up. Gibson was inactive in San Francisco until Week 16. He played in the Niners final two games, recording three tackles and a forced fumble. If Gibson develops as a legit NFL linebacker, it will be a bitter pill for the Steelers, especially if the young linebackers they kept -- Jason Worilds and Stevenson Sylvester -- do not.

Dirt Dawson’s dilemma

By all rights, Dermontti Dawson should be elected into the NFL Hall of Fame Saturday, but we're guessing he won't be -- again. Dawson is dealing with a number of obstacles in getting in. First, comes the sentiment there are "enough" Steelers in, which is ludicrous, of course, but the sentiment is there. Second, is the label he's gotten over the past five years of his HOF eligibility, that he's a "good but not great" player. We'll just say this abou that: Dawson was as good as Mike Webster, if not better. Dwight Stephenson is generally considered to be the best center of all time. Dawson played longer, made more Pro Bowls and if you switched uniforms on the two guys on their highlight reels, even a trained eye would have a hard time telling them apart. Dawson's biggest problem is that he played in front of Bubby Brister, Kordell Steward and Neil O'Donnell, while Stephenson played in front of Dan Marino.

As close as you can get

If you've followed the efficiency stats web site we referred you to earlier in the year (www.advancednflstats.com; we know, you haven't) you know how accurate those stats have been in predicting playoffs winners. The Jets-Patriots game is really the only one in the entire playoffs where the efficiency stats were way off (predicting a Patriots win 71 percent of the time). So what do those efficiency stats say about Super Bowl XLV? They say if this game was played 100 times, the Steelers would win 50.5 percent of the time. And since you can't get a half win the NFL, they'd have to play it 200 times to come up with a scenariod where the Steelers would win 101 and the Packers would win 99. Yikes.

Matchups to watch
Steelers LaMarr Woodley vs. Packers Bryan Bulaga: Woodley is a big-game stud and, of course, the Steelers have not lost this year in games where he’s had a sack. A fast track in a dome doesn’t only benefit runners and receivers, but also outside rushers.

Steelers blitz pickup vs. Packers Charles Woodson: Although most of the attention and accolades rightly go to Clay Matthews, we’re more concerned about a splash play coming from Woodson blitzing out of the slot. This is only going to happen once or twice in the game, but if the Steelers blow the protection, it just might lead to a sack/strip that tilts the field.

Tight ends vs. defenses: The Packers corners are nails but the Green Bay D ranks 22^nd in yards surrendered to opposing tight ends, which makes Heath Miller a critical Roethlisberger target, especially early in the game. Conversely, when the Steelers are spread out on defense, they’ve shown the ability to shut down opposing wideouts, but where they’ve been hurt is by the tight end (most notably in the New England game; also, think about how the Jets started moving when Mark Sanchez starting finding Dustin Keller) so keep your eyes on what kind of coverage Troy Polamalu, Ryan Clark, Lawrence Timmons and James Farrior are able to maintain against Donald Lee and Andrew Quarless.

The pick

We’ve gone on long enough so there’s no need for much more detail. The Packers have more talent. The Steelers are a better team. Look for early signs of which will win out. If you’re seeing crazy athletic plays by Aaron Rodgers and B.J. Raji and Tramon Williams, that’s a bad sign for Pittsburgh. If you’re seeing Roethlisberger converting third downs, Rashard Mendenhall breaking tackles and Casey Hampton controlling the nose, that’s a good sign for Pittsburgh. If the Packers win this game, we think it will be by blowout. The potential is there. But if Pittsburgh can keep it a one-score game into the fourth quarter, we think the Steelers mystique will win out. A lot of people think it needs to be a low-scoring game for that to happen but we’re not among them. The Steelers have scored 31 and 24 in the playoffs, playing only a half in each game. We’ve got both quarterbacks playing well but only one can have the last drive … Steelers 35-31.

We'll be tweeting Sunday @15MinutesBlog. We might not get a blog up Sunday evening because we’ll be helping with Monday’s newspaper.

Whatever happens Sunday, it's been a great ride. Here we go...

Super Bowl XLV: Reflecting on Roethlisberger

2011-02-03T08:48:00.000-08:00

FAN FAIR?
On destiny’s doorstep, Roethlisberger
leaves football followers feeling conflicted

Blogger’s note: This blog entry is so serious that we’re going to drop our gimmicky third person point of view – in the next sentence. I asked a group of the smartest, most thoughtful, most well spoken people I know to take their own pulse and reflect on their feelings for Ben Roethlisberger, 11 months after the mess in Milledgeville and a few days before he could take his place as one of pro football’s immortal greats. Before we get to the smart, thoughtful, well spoken people, I’ll start.

Ray Eckenrode

Lifelong Steelers fan, newspaper evangelist, part-time sports blogger

I’ll start here where I left off with this whole mess eight months ago. There are only two people in the world (and possibly only one, based on the level of intoxication of the young lady involved) who know for certain what happened in that bathroom in Milledgeville, Ga., last March. Police and prosecutors decided they couldn’t even try to prove that a crime occurred there, so for anyone else to assume or allege that one did is unfair.

Beyond that, we’re all able to judge Ben Roethlisberger to the extent our consciences allow. But from my perspective, Roethlisberger has a lot of company in the bad behavior department.

He’s not the first athlete to exhibit insanely bad judgment. It seems like an epidemic sometimes.

He’s not the first Steelers player to face sexual assault charges. Jerome Bettis dealt with an allegation in 2002 – and just like in Roethlisberger’s case, police decided not to pursue charges.

He’s not the first 27-year-old man to pursue and 20-year-old woman. I’d venture to guess that happens every weekend in Altoona.

He’s not the first person to attempt to have sex in a public place. Most of us know someone who’s done that (whether we know we know or not).

Does this excuse any of Roethlisberger’s behavior? Of course not.
Does it sound like implicit support of Roethlisberger and marginalization of the evils of sexual assault? I’ve certainly struggled with that question and I’m sure some will interpret it that way

Perhaps I seem more sympathetic to Roethlisberger because I’m a journalist at heart and I feel badly about how unfairly today’s journalists have treated him, taking allegations as fact (and continuing to do so this week, almost a year after the incident) and abandoning principles of fair reporting along the way.

Honestly, if I could talk to Roethlisberger, I think more than anything I’d apologize to him for the behavior of many of those involved in what’s left of the profession of journalism.

Until then, as a football fan with blinders on, I admire his toughness and innate ability to make critical plays at critical times.

And as a Steelers football fan, I’ll remain somewhat angry at him for shaking my belief that the Steelers are different than most NFL teams.

A Penn State graduate, Eckenrode has been the general manager of the Altoona Mirror since 2004 and taught communications as part of Penn State Altoona’s adjunct faculty since 2005. You are reading his “15 Minutes” blog.

Samantha Flynn

Hardcore Steelers fan, Chicago PR pro, contributor to multiple blogs

I don’t want to be a traitor to my gender but … I love Ben Roethlisberger. In seven short seasons, he has led my beloved Steelers to two Super Bowls titles. He is an elite QB in the NFL – with more playoff wins than Peyton Manning and the chance to have as many rings as Tom Brady come Sunday.

He just isn’t that great of a guy. We’ve all witnessed the media circus that has surrounded Ben since joining the league – riding a motorcycle sans helmet and two sexual assault allegations made national news. However, Pittsburgh natives know that he is, for lack of a better term, a jag-off. You can’t count on Roethlisberger to be polite to the wait staff, sign autographs, take pictures or greet fans.

And you know what? None of that matters to me. I am able to separate Ben the player from Ben the person. As a country, we have a history of being able to do this – Michael Jackson had a funeral fit for a king, Michael Vick is having a career resurgence and Charlie Sheen still gets paid a lucrative salary to spend on drugs and hookers. The difference between Ben and these gentlemen above is that all three have been charged with arguably worse offenses – Ben has not.

While I would never hang out with Ben in my free time, I have trouble punishing him for his alleged transgressions. I went to college in the not-too-distant past and, unfortunately, know plenty of guys that treat girls similarly to Ben, as well as plenty that don’t. It just doesn’t matter to me. Ben plays to win the game, he scrambles for first downs, he calls his own plays, he takes care of the ball, he never shies away from a hit, he plays injured and he wins games in the clutch. At the end of the day, there isn’t another QB in the league I’d rather have leading our team and as far as football goes – that’s all I care about.

A native of Lancaster with degrees from Penn State and Syracuse, Samantha Flynn is a public relations professional in Chicago. You can find her sport blog, “Chicks Dig Sports, Too,” at http://samanthajflynn.wordpress.com.

John Mark Rafacz

Bleeds black and gold, Centre County arts guru, frequent media contributor

A friend of mine grew up in Pittsburgh. Not long after Ben Roethlisberger took the field in the NFL, she began criticizing him. “He’s not very bright. He holds onto the ball too long. He takes too many sacks,” she’d gripe. “He’s not tough enough. He’s always whining about being hurt.” The litany of shortcomings seemed endless. Ultimately, she just didn’t like Roethlisberger. Then came the allegations of sexual abuse. She’ll always be a Steelers fan, but I don’t think she’ll ever forgive Roethlisberger for what he may have done in a Georgia bar.

We think of Americans as a forgiving people. And often that’s the case, especially when an offender seems genuinely sorry and willing to work to regain our trust. But Americans also have a vindictive streak. Our popular culture brims with depictions of vengeance. In the view of many, Roethlisberger is guilty and unforgiveable – even though he was never charged with a crime.

Did Roethlisberger use poor judgment and behave badly? Of course. Has he been a poor teammate? He admits as much. Did his sports league punish him for his actions? Indeed it did. Does he deserve a chance to earn a place in our good graces? Yes. For all the stupid things he’s done, Roethlisberger’s still a talented and determined young man with immense potential to do good – both on and, more importantly, off the field. I’m willing to see if, given another opportunity, he’s able to right his wrongs.

A former newspaper reporter and lifelong Pittsburgh sports fan, John Mark Rafacz works as a performing arts propagandist in State College. Find him online at www.centredaily.com/701.

Amy Hanna
Casual sports fan, one-time owner of a Steelers #7 jersey, marketing whiz, pet activist

I was raised a Steelers fan – willingly. It’s like a birthmark/right if you are born in Central Pa. Having attended college in Pittsburgh only reinforced my loyalty to the black and gold.

I will always root for the Steelers as a team even if I don’t particularly care for an individual player. That’s what football is: a team sport. It takes the collective effort of an entire team – players, coaches, and staff – to win (or lose) a game.

I will never disagree that Ben Roethlisberger is not an amazingly talented player who is a joy to watch in action on the field. His moves are like those of a ballet dancer – rarely ever missing a beat, almost always on target – graceful, intent, precise. It was his actions off the field that churned my stomach. And, I, unlike, many others, do not differentiate on-field and off-field behavior when it involves a pro athlete. For this reason …We all have a responsibility to provide our future generations with the best possible tools to succeed and thrive in this world. One way in which we naturally do this is to encourage our children to find inspirational people that they can look up to in order to help them grow and succeed in a field they are passionate about – whether sports, academics or the arts. We encourage them to hold these people up as role models and follow in their path of greatness so they can focus their goals in an effort to achieve similar success.

I realize a person doesn’t ask to be a role model. However, the more success you achieve in life, the more people begin to look up to you and seek to follow a similar path – in the hope of finding their own success.

You can say Ben’s actions off the field are not to be confused with his actions on the field. However, when you reach the level of success that someone in his position has – it comes with the territory. When he put on the Steelers uniform he pledged to represent more than just himself. He is representing his fellow players, the team, the city and his fans – including the younger generation who has elevated him to role model – And, that comes with a responsibility to serve them well.

Perhaps when teaching our children how to select a role model we should also teach them what Ralph Waldo Emerson said: “A person will worship something, have no doubt about that. We may think our tribute is paid in secret in the dark recesses of our hearts, but it will out. That which dominates our imaginations and our thoughts will determine our lives, and our character. Therefore, it behooves us to be careful what we worship, for what we are worshipping we are becoming.”

A native of Bellwood and graduate of Point Park College, Hanna is the Altoona Mirror’s marketing manager. Her pet blog – “Have Dog, Will Blog” – can be found on www.altoonamirror.com.

Erik Brown
Miami Dolphins fan, accounting pro, running aficionado and blogger

In a column this week on FoxSports.com, Jason Whitlock argued that NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell is using Ben Roethlisberger as a scapegoat to avoid more potentially controversial issues with punishing Michael Vick and Brett Favre. I agree with most of Whitlock’s assessment of Goodell, but very little of what he had to say about Roethlisberger.

Whitlock nails it with his observation that Goodell is using Roethlisberger to “prove” that he (Goodell) isn’t sexist or racist. I saw the same politically correct side of Goodell when he torpedoed Rush Limbaugh’s participation in a group of investor’s bidding to buy the St. Louis Rams. Roger, the criticism dodger, is everything that Whitlock makes him out to be, and less.

But Whitlock has it all wrong about Roethlisberger (excuse me, but I won’t adoringly refer to him as “Big Ben!”). There is nothing “brutally unfair” about the way Roethlisberger is being treated. He made his bed, or at least he tried to, and he deserves any abuse he takes for it. I like underdogs, too. But Roethlisberger, with his goon squad posse in tow, was no underdog in that bar in Georgia.

And let’s not forget Ben’s apology, that is to say, utter lack of one. As far as we know, there has been no apology offered to the young women who were there that night. Instead, the public got weasel words written by his lawyer: “I was immature, and used bad judgment.” Can you imagine an ESPN analyst comparing quarterbacks during the pre-game show for Super Bowl XLIII, Steelers v. Cardinals, and saying something like, “I give the edge to the Cardinals because, Ben Roethlisberger is immature and lacks judgment.?”

I miss Terry Bradshaw. Double yoi!

A Hollidaysburg resident, Erik Brown is the Altoona Mirror’s accounting manager. You can find his running blog – “Against the Wind” – on www.altoonamirror.com.

SBXLV preview: The Polamalu factor

2011-01-27T09:53:00.000-08:00

THE INVISIBLE MAN
Polamalu's impact comes in brief, but brilliant, bursts

Troy Polamalu's big-impact plays
seem to come in bunches.

Let’s talk about a football player we shall call Mr. X. Our man Mr. X plays safety in the NFL and he has for eight years. These are some of his average career statistics:

4.8 tackles per game
1 sack per season
1 interception every 4 games
1 TD for every 36 games played
1 forced fumble per season
10 passes defensed per season

Our Mr. X is a pretty pedestrian, run-of-the-mill player, yes?

For comparison’s sake, here are the five-year stats of journeyman safety Brodney Pool:

3.8 tackles per game
1 sack per season
1 interception every 7 games
1 TD for every 43 games played
1/2 forced fumble per season
8 passes defensed per season

As you can see, there’s really not a lot of difference statistically between Mr. X and Mr. Pool. On paper, you wouldn’t guess Mr. X is an All Pro and one of the most feared players in the game – but he is.

Of course, Mr. X is Troy Polamalu and we’re left to wonder just how exactly we can reconcile those black and white truths with the whirling dervish of a game-changing football player we see (or think we see) on the field.

The first and most obvious truth is that Polamalu has far more games like the one he had against the Jets last week (4 tackles, 0 interceptions, 0 sacks, 0 passes defensed) than he does games like he had against the Bills this year (4 tackles, 3 passes defensed, 1 interception).

However, we’re much more likely to remember Polamalu’s splash plays, like his Flying Pylon Pick 6 against the Bengals this year, which ranks as one of the prettiest plays in NFL history, or his Super Bowl securing Weaving Pick 6 in 2009 against the Ravens, which ranks as one of the most important plays in Steelers history.

These larger-than-life plays help contribute to the impression that Polamalu is a 24-7-365 larger-than-life player. But the statistics don’t lie. This season, especially, has been a back-and-forth battle between Invisible Troy and Tasmanian Devil Troy. Consider:

First two games, 2-0 (Tasmanian Devil Troy)

11 tackles, 2 passes defensed, 2 interceptions

Next seven games, 4-3 (Invisible Troy)

34 tackles, 0 passes defensed, 0 interceptions

Next four games, 4-0 (Tasmanian Devil Troy)
17 tackles, 1 sack, 8 passes defensed, 4 interceptions

Next two games, 1-1 (Injured Troy)

Next game, 1-0 (Tasmanian Devil Troy)

1 tackle, 1 pass defensed, 1 interception

Two playoff games, 2-0 (Invisible Troy)

7 tackles, 0 passes defensed, 0 interceptions

This look back at Polamalu’s season can help dispel the common misconception, repeated almost daily by the national media, that #43 must not be healthy because he’s been nearly invisible the past two weeks. As the stats show, Polamalu was completely invisible for seven weeks straight this season when he wasn’t injured. Then – pow.

It looks to us like Polamalu is plenty healthy enough to make an impact in Super Bowl XLV. The question is: Will he? And the answer is: You never know. Polamalu’s Super Bowl history doesn’t provide evidence he will unless you subscribe to the theory that he’s due for a big effort:

Super Bowl stats

XL 5 tackles, 0 pass defensed, 0 sacks, 0 interceptions

XLIII 2 tackles, 1 pass defensed, 0 sacks, 0 interceptions

Of course, the splash plays and accompanying perception that Polamalu is a game-changing player is often an advantage for the Steelers as opponents game plan to stay away from him, basically eliminating one-fourth of the playing field that needs to be defensed. That same avoidance strategy also can help explain some, but not all, of Polamalu’s statistical dry spells. If teams don’t throw at you, it’s hard to defend passes or make interceptions.

AFC North wrapup...

2011-01-25T07:47:00.000-08:00

Because it's the offseason in 30 NFL cities:

Baltimore Ravens

> We’ve already heard it a million times: The Steelers and Packers are two teams that do it right. They provide a blueprint for other owners and organizations looking for success. Spend money to evaluate talent, build through the draft, stick to your plan.
Never was there a more cosmic illustration of this than in the AFC Divisional round where the Ravens’ two multi-million-dollar offseason free agent wide receivers each dropped a crucial pass while two Steelers’ rookies, fourth- and sixth-round draft picks, made huge plays. It was if the football gods were saying to John Harbaugh, Ozzie Newsome and Steve Bisciotti: “Here’s your sign!”

So, naturally, within the first five minutes of his season-ending press conference Harbaugh mentioned the possibility of signing Plaxico Burress.

To quote a famous former Ravens player: Can’t wait.

> In case you missed this, the Ravens sent tape to the NFL, complaining the Steelers game-winning touchdown in the Divisional Round playoff game, a 2-yard run by Rashard Mendenhall, should have been nullified by a false start against David Johnson. The NFL disagreed. Of course, the irony here is that the Steelers could send a tape to the NFL of Michael Oher false starting on 15 plays in the teams’ three meetings this year.

Cincinnati Bengals
> It didn’t take long after Marvin Lewis’ re-signing for things to go back to status quo for the Bungles. Carson Palmer wants out and, with the quarterback shortage in the NFL, owner/GM/dictator Mike Brown should be looking to fleece a team desperate to get him. Instead, he’s girding for another p*ssing match where everyone involved will lose, including the team he owns. To compound things, Chad Ochocinco took about 30 minutes to rip Bengals fans and media on Twitter about his own trade request last year, and then it took about another day for Lewis to take a shot back at Ochocinco.

If ever the core of an organization needed to be turned over, it’s in Cincinnati right now, but the clueless ownership won’t let it happen.

Cleveland Browns
> There’s some expected discontent among the Dawg Pound over the hire of Pat Shurmur as head coach, but it fits the profile of a lot of successful hires over the past five years: talented, under-the-radar coordinator going to work for successful football operations guy.

For Steelers fans, the big news coming out of Cleveland involved the defensive coordinator hire, who got it and who didn’t.

First, Dave Wannstedt didn’t take the Browns job, opting to go to Buffalo instead. We think that’s good news for the Steelers, because we think Wanny could have built an AFC North-worthy unit.

Instead, Cleveland hired Dick Jauron, which means the Browns will be converting to a 4-3, which, at the very least, means there’s one less team in the draft competing with Pittsburgh for scheme-specific talent.

Pittsburgh Steelers
> Speaking of scheme-specific talent, the fact that Steelers are playing in Dallas means they'll be picking 31st or 32nd in the 2011 NFL Draft in April and that slot absolutely brings Mike Pouncey, brother of Maurkice and destined to be a great NFL guard, into the picture. In fact, his name has already appeared in the Steelers slot in several early mock drafts.

15 Minutes Super Bowl Blogstravaganza

2011-01-24T11:11:00.000-08:00

<a href="http://www.coveritlive.com/mobile.php/option=com_mobile/task=viewaltcast/altcast_code=ddf61da6c7" >15 Minutes Super Bowl Blogstravaganza</a>

Jets-Steelers wrap...

2011-01-23T19:51:00.001-08:00

Bleeding Black and Gold

AFC Championship: Pittsburgh 24, New York Jets 19

BROADWAY FAUX
Jets can’t back up braggadocio, bluster

It was over when:

Ben Roethlisberger looked like he was supposed to run a QB draw on 3^rd-and-6, but with the middle clogged, he rolled right and found sudden superstar Antonio Brown for a sliding catch that sealed the win. Mike Tomlin and Bruce Arians went all in on the final drive of the game, throwing twice and risking stopping the clock for the Jets each time.

Play of the day:

> Ike Taylor came clean on a corner blitz late in the second quarter and nailed Mark Sanchez, forcing a fumble that Bill Gay picked up, making one nice cutback to get him to the end zone and put the Steelers up 24-0.

> Don’t overlook Antonio Brown’s kickoff return that set the Steelers up for their final drive outside their own 40. Without that, the Steelers might never have been as aggressive in moving the ball and killing the clock.

Zebra hunting:

> Using Twitter as a gauge, about half the people clearly thought Heath Miller had his hands under that catch the entire time and half the people thought he lost possession briefly (which would be about one-hundredth of a second in real time) and the ball touched the ground. Obviously, Ed Hochuli fell into the second category and he thought what he saw was indisputable. As an aside, it never should have come to that as Miller was W-I-D-E open and would have walked into the end zone with a half decent pass from Ben Roethlisberger.

> Um, there were zero offensive holding calls in that game.

Hot topics:

> The picture said it all. As CBS’ cameras came back for the second-half kickoff, the seats at Heinz Field were half empty. Despite the fact that their own team just staged a huge second-half comeback one week earlier, the faithful thought this one was over. And the team they cheer for followed suit. The Steelers didn’t go into a prevent defense and they didn’t stop blitzing, but they clearly lost their EMOTIONAL edge after halftime and the Jets, and most especially Mark Sanchez, executed, plain and simple.

> Honestly, we tweeted it at the time and we’ll say it now: That safety was the best thing that could have happened to the Steelers. Otherwise, we were looking at two QB sneaks, a third-down run and a punt that might have been blocked or that would have set the Jets up around the Steelers 30 after the return. Instead, the ensuing scoring drive after the free kick chewed up enough time that the Steelers were able to run out the clock with a good return and two gutsy first-down conversions.

> Mike Tomlin was cryptic about the Maurkice Pouncey injury, saying he’d have no comment on it until Monday. Brother John, a registered nurse and a Steelers fan with a keen eye, already has diagnosed it as a fractured distal fibula. He also would be happy to be wrong about that diagnosis. By the time we were ready to publish this blog, several media types were tweeting that Pouncey told them it's a sprain.

> To review: Rex Ryan guaranteed the Jets wouldn’t have a letdown. He guaranteed they’d play well. His father guaranteed they’d win. By Sunday afternoon, even the beat writer for the New York Daily News was guaranteeing a Super Bowl trip. Joe Namath got lucky. There are no guarantees in the NFL.

Game (mis)management:

> Really, a pretty well-managed game all around. Timeouts used well, challenges appropriate. Sexy Rexy will take some heat for the fourth-down run to LT,

Paralysis by analysis:
> Jim Nantz is on his way to becoming Public Enemy No. 1 in Pittsburgh with his continued anti-Steelers calls on everything from simple rushing plays to replay challenges.

And now a word from our sponsors:

> Those Farmers Insurance spots would not work nearly so well without J.K. Simmons (you know, Juno’s dad) as the instructor.

> Did CBS really let their pregame host (James Brown) do a fake interview with a fictional character (the ETrade baby)? I think they did.

Sweet tweets:

@JimWexell: BMac warming up gingerly, haven’t seen him push is yet. He was dancing fiercely, though.

@CdrEck: Was that Mitch Berger punting for the Jets?

@GlobeChadFinn: So Rex definitely tracked down Larry Foote for a hug, right?

@HerePuff: We’re going to Phoenix!!! (Blogger’s note: This is sly sarcasm.)

@sjflynn: I’m going to throw up. (Blogger’s note: This isn’t.)

We were right:

> We said we expected Rashard Mendenhall to be the difference here with a 100+ yard effort and that was dead on. We figured him for a big game after Sports Illustrated’s Peter King questioned whether Mendenhall was really a big-time back in King’s “Monday Morning Quarterback” column.

We were wrong:
> Once again, we expected Mark Sanchez to freeze up on the big stage in the frigid temps and once again the kid was nails. He clearly outplayed Ben Roethlisberger (who missed not one, not two, but three open touchdown throws) and we shudder to think what would have happened had Sanchez gotten another chance with the ball.

Next up:
> The Steelers opened at 2.5-point underdogs to the Packers in Super Bowl XLV and that line could do some crazy things over the next two weeks as Green Bay and Pittsburgh are the two teams that draw the most “public” (read: amateur) action. Remember, the line is not an indication of who Vegas thinks will win the game, it’s a guesstimate aimed at getting roughly equal amounts of money placed on each team.

NFC Championship: Packers 21, Bears 14

> Headline: THE CUTLER DID IT / Bears crunched by Packers after QB’s disappearing act
> Seriously, is there one established QB starter you’d want for your team less than Jay Cutler? I’d take Carson Palmer, Jason Campbell and Kyle Orton over him. Cutler is the new Jake Delhomme.

> Joe Buck and Troy Aikman were HORRIBLE in this game. Buck miscalled teams and down-and-distance situations, and saw things, like imaginary slips and footballs touching the ground, that didn’t happen. Aikman offered incorrect assessments of two replayable plays and glossed over one of the biggest plays of the game, the “mystery” holding call on Chester Taylor that nullified a Bears pass play inside the Packers 20.
> Sweet tweet: @stoney16 Bears injury update: Todd Collins, colorblindness; Jay Cutler, yeast infection.

Jets-Steelers pregame stretch...

2011-01-21T06:20:00.000-08:00

BLEEDING BLACK AND GOLD

At a glance

#6 New York Jets (13-5) vs. #2 Pittsburgh (13-4)

6:30 p.m. Sunday, CBS

Broadcasters: Jim Nantz and Phil Simms

Annoyance factor: Rising. Nantz has gotten awfully preachy for a play-by-play guy and Simms has been surpassed as an analyst by Chris Collinsworth. The pair should begin this broadcast by apologizing to Ryan Clark for demonizing his hard but clean hit on Braylon Edwards in the last Steelers-Jets game. Nantz incorrectly indicated there was helmet-to-helmet contact by Clark and called for a fine against him. Simms, meanwhile, made his famous “sometimes something that isn’t technically a penalty is still a penalty” argument. Clark was penalized in error by Referee Pete Morelli’s crew for the hit, but was not fined by the NFL.

Referee: Ed Hochuli

Competence factor: Considered by most to be one of the top three referees in the league, Hochuli has been the white hat for two Super Bowls. As with any veteran official, he’s been involved in his fair share of controversies, including one this year over a roughness penalty assessed to the Lions’ Ndamukong Suh for what looked to be a two-handed shove. He won’t be working with his regular crew here, but rather as part of an all-star crew. All officials working the conference championship games and Super Bowl graded out as one of the top three at their position.

Smarts say: Steelers -3.5

Why: The line here opened with the Steelers as 3-point favorites, but it creeped up to -4 by Thursday monring. That might be because bettors are having a similar experience to analyst Michael Lombardi, who picked the Jets to win this game on Monday on Bill Simmons’ podcast, spent all day Tuesday watching tape, then picked the Steelers to win Wednesday on his own NFL Network segment. Or the rising line could be further evidence of the Steelers status as a “public” team (“public” is a gambling term for a team that draws a lot of action from bettors who don’t really know what they’re doing, sort of like how your wife or girlfriend fills out her NCAA bracket poll based on uniform colors or team nicknames). Interestingly, the over/under is the game has also creeped up from 38 to 39. If you put the two together, Vegas is hoping for something like Steelers 22-17, an exact reversal of the last outcome between the two teams. Just as we were ready to post this, the line dropped back to -3.5 meaning Vegas has found it’s equilibrium in getting nearly equal amounts of money on each team.

Heinz Field freezeout?

Although weather weanies are really only making a semi-educated guess when they forecast conditions, they are much more accurate when forecasting temperature, so you can take stock in the prediction that temperatures during the game Sunday evening will fall from the low teens to around 8 degrees by the fourth quarter. That would make this the coldest game Mark Sanchez has ever played in and it will be interesting to see how he reacts.

California boy Sanchez got an early reputation for wilting in winter weather, but he’s done much this year to dispel that, nowhere moreso than in the Jets-Steelers Week 15 meeting, which was played in snowy conditions with a game-time temp of 25 degrees. That said, western Pennsylvanians know there’s a big difference between 25 degrees in December and 8 degrees in late January.

Big Ben’s blitz-krieg

As Ben Roethlisberger was leading the Steelers on the game-winning drive in last Saturday’s divisional playoff game with the Ravens, a truly amazing stat popped up on the screen:

Sacks

Ravens 6 Steelers 4

Baltimore dropped Big Ben six, count ‘em, six times, hit him numerous additional times (including one in the knees from Terrell Suggs), scored a defensive touchdown on a sack/strip and generally harassed him all evening … and lost. And very few of us see the effort as anything other than business as usual for Roethlisberger and the Steelers.

All of which brings us to this question: As a defensive coordinator, do you really want to pressure Ben Roethlisberger? Has it gotten to a point where the big man is so used to dealing with constant duress that it’s become his comfort zone?

The Jets have blitzed on only 13 percent of defensive plays so far this postseason. It will be very interesting to see if they abandon that strategy Sunday.

Winning formulas?

If you’re looking for an early sign about how this game turn out, here are some indicators to keep an eye on:

Ø The Steelers have won every game this year in which LaMarr Woodley had a sack;

Ø The Steelers have won every game this year in which Troy Polamalu had an interception;

Ø The Steelers are 7-1 in games in which Mike Wallace caught a touchdown pass;

Ø The Steelers are 6-0 in game in which Ben Roethlisberger had a QB rating over 100.0

We might never walk this way again

Win or lose, the Steelers have had a season more successful than nearly any of us expected. However, when you get to this point and lose there's a natural tendency to think "we'll get them next year." In the NFL, that's misguided thinking. After the Steelers won the Super Bowl in 1980 it was generally agreed upon among fans and experts alike that they might win two more before that core of players was finished. Of course, they didn't return to the big game for 16 years and didn't win it again until 26 years later. Pro football is the ultimate "right here, right now" sport and hopefully the Steelers fully grasp that.

The pick

Almost anyone this week who's studied the tape, reviewed the last meeting between these two teams or done any kind of statistical evaluation on this game has come to this conclusion: The Steelers are a better football team than the Jets, not dramatically better, but better. If they played this game 10 times, the Steelers would win six of them, maybe seven. But they don't play it 10 times, they play it once, and the Jets are a dangerous opponent. So how do better teams lose games? Three ways: Turnovers, poor special teams, mental breakdown.

Starting with the last item, it will be interesting to try and assess whether this week's toned-down media histrionics -- where the Jets fell all over themselves to say nice things about the Steelers and the New York media desperately exploited any small detail to try and make it look like the Steelers were disrespecting the Jets -- have any impact on the outcome. We're guessing they won't, but if it affects anyone it should affect the team that was acting out of character this week and you know who that was.

At midseason, it appeared the Steelers special teams had turned the corner but the last nine games have awakened the usual demons: poor coverage, short kickoffs, inappropriate punting. Special teams got the Jets nine points the last time these two teams played and if it happens again Sunday the Steelers will be watching the Super Bowl from their couches. Personally, we’d much rather see Brad Smith returning kicks than Antonio Cromartie.

It’s kind of funny (and kind of not) that with all the analysis we create and consume on NFL games, eight times out of 10 the team with the fewest turnovers wins. It will probably be the case Sunday which means keeping an eye on Roethlisberger (whose interception-less streak is nearing Brady-esque proportions – and you know how that turned out last week) and Rashard Mendenhall, who has a history of butterfingers.
All that said, it’s Mendenhall who we expect to provide the difference in this game, not as a fumbler but as a 100+ yard rusher … Steelers 23-20.

NFC Championship

Green Bay (-3.5) at Chicago

3 p.m., Sunday, FOX

Announcers: Joe Buck, Troy Aikman

Referee: Terry McAulay

It will actually be warmer in Chicago Sunday than in Pittsburgh, but the weather still could play a key role in this one. Of course, the collective media hoard has pointed out it will be harder for Aaron Rodgers to sizzle outdoors the way he did in the climate-controlled perfection of a dome. But what we haven’t heard is many people pointing out it’s also much harder on RECEIVERS trying to catch the football in snow and wind. For those two reasons, we think anyone expecting another rockets-red-glare performance from Rodgers and Co. is going to be disappointed. We’re expecting a nip-and-tuck, low-scoring contest that hinges on which team gets more performance from its running backs. The specter of a Jay Cutler flameout is always present, but if Cutler keeps it together, we’ll take Matt Forte’s dual-threat capabilities as the difference … Da Bears 20-17.

Note: This is the second time in the playoffs we are picking the Packers to lose to a team that we think they are better than. Proceed with caution…

The last word

Tim Ryan, the color man on Fox's fifth-string NFL broadcast team and co-host of "Moving The Chains" on NFL Radio on Sirius, is actually a very insightful analyst once you get beyond his "hey-dawg-talk-to-me-bro" bluster. We couldn't sum things up any better than he did earlier this week: "When you look at the matchups in these games, the quality of the four teams and the shape of the football, I don't have any idea who's going to win either of them." And neither does anyone else -- which is what makes it so enjoyable.

We'll be tweeting all day Sunday @15MinutesBlog and we'll get up a quick blog Sunday evening and something in more detail Monday morning.
Here we go...

AFC Championship countdown: T minus 4 days

2011-01-19T07:41:00.001-08:00

A way off Revis Island?

One of the big questions entering Sunday's game is how the Jets defense will use Darrelle Revis this time out.

In the last game, Revis played about 90 percent of the snaps on Hines Ward, who caught two passes for 34 yards. That left Antonio Cromartie on Mike Wallace most of the time with two-deep safety help. You'll also remember officials allowed a lot of contact in that game between DBs and WRs, which is a huge advantage in trying to defend Wallace.
If a similar scenario unfolds and the Jets neutralize both Ward and Wallace, Heath Miller becomes the most important player in the game. In the two teams’ last meeting, Miller was injured and Matt Spaeth was targeted nine times by Ben Roethlisberger but made only three catches. You can bet if Miller gets nine balls Sunday, he’ll have six or seven receptions and how those three or four catches play out could be the difference in the ballgame.

Revis, after struggling while injured at midseason, looks to be back to all-world form. As Bill Simmons noted in his podcast this week, the Aliquippa/Pitt product looked like he was literally stepping on Deion Branch's feet on every play Sunday, even on double moves.

The confidence factor

We keep seeing lots of media references locally that Steelers fans are "overconfident" about this game, but we've yet to meet an actual Steelers fan who's overconfident. Most of the fans we talked to are very concerned about a letdown Sunday. And truly, it makes no difference if fans are overconfident, it's the 53 guys on the roster who better not be.

Pats choke redux

We've heard a lot of talk about how the Wes Welker benching discombobulated the Pats, but after watching the replay last night on NFL Network we're calling bull****.

The Pats started their first possession on their own 16, drove down the field easily with Danny Woodhead absolutely bowling over Jets defenders on several plays and were in field goal range when Tom Brady threw his once-a-millenium stupid interception. The Jets then missed an easy field goal, the Pats took over and drove quickly and decisively down the field again only to have Algernon Darius Crumpler drop a certain touchdown. With the exception of those two plays, the Pats’ offense gained 128 yards on 15 plays in the first quarter, or 8.5 yards per play.

Often, the script we write for a game in hindsight is different than reality and this is an example. The Pats didn't come out flat and they weren't affected in any noticeable way by Welker's benching. They made 15 great plays in the game's first quarter, but two bad ones at the most inopportune of times.

One more time

Speaking of replays, Ravens-Steelers III gets extended replay treatment (150 minutes instead of 75) tonight at 8 p.m. on NFL Network.

AFC Championship countdown: T minus 5 days

2011-01-18T09:39:00.000-08:00

Shiny, happy Rexy

It became very clear, very quickly Monday what the Jets media strategy is going to be this week: Kill the Steelers with kindness. Antonio Cromartie on Ben: "He's a great guy." Rex Ryan on Mike Tomlin: "One of my favorite coaches." Trevor Pryce on the game: "There's no way you can prepare for those guys, for that franchise." Puh-leeeze. This one is just as transparent as Ryan's "this one is all on me" from last week -- and that one went horribly off track. It'll be interesting to see if the Jets can keep their shiny, happy faces on all week. We're guessing Bart Scott can not.

If you wonder why the Jets have to have a “media strategy” for each game, it’s because stuff like this passes for sports coverage in New York.

One that got away

We watched the replay of the Week 15 Jets-Steelers game Monday night on NFL Network and we’re more convinced than ever that Mike Wallace’s total cluelessness on Ben Roethlisberger’s fake spike play just before halftime was a critical misstep. The sideline video included in the re-broadcast makes it clear the play was planned (and not spur of the moment) and it’s also clear the Steelers coaching staff on the sideline thought Wallace should have made the easy adjustment to catch the ball for a touchdown. Instead, the Steelers settled for a field goal to tie the game at 10-10. Yes, that’s only a four-point swing in what turned out to be a five-point game, but it would have been such a dramatic momentum changer.

They wear stripes

For those of us who pay attention to the officiating (other than when it goes horribly wrong), the crews were announced Monday for this weekend’s games. Here’s who will be in Pittsburgh:

Referee- Ed Hochuli
Umpire- Garth DeFelice (Blakeman)
HL- Mark Hittner (Hochuli)
LJ- Tom Symonette (Hochuli)
SJ- Laird Hayes (Carey)
BJ- Dino Paganelli (Steratore)
FJ- Bob Waggoner (Steratore)
ALT Referee- Ron Winter
ALT FJ- Boris Cheek (Cheffers)

Placing multiple officials in a conference championship game reflects well on Hochuli and Gene Steratore’s overall crews. We’ll discuss Hochuli further in our pregame stretch on Friday. It should be noted that Umpire Garth DeFelice is somewhat of a cult hero among NFL officials. He’s the guy who “decked” a Rams player in an inadvertent collision a few years ago. DeFelice also encountered controversy this year when he ejected San Francisco’s Justin Smith in Week 15 for contacting an official. In other words, Ike Taylor better lay off the head butts this week.

AFC Championship countdown: T minus 6 days

2011-01-17T08:41:00.000-08:00

Polamalu's whiffs

> Most of the national media are falling all over themselves to make note of the two tackles Troy Polamalu whiffed on against Ray Rice Saturday evening as if that's some kind of a once-in-a-generation occurence. Readers of this blog and long-time Steelers fans know that Polamalu probably has 100 or more of those whiffs in his portfolio. As Mirror graphics guru Tommy Worthington pointed out to us, Polamalu is a home run hitter and he strikes out a lot. But when he gets hold of one … you know the rest.

Flozell's Dallas dreams

> We really and truly want to believe that Flozell Adams is singularly focused on winning as Ron Cook (and Mike Tomlin) assert in this column. Flozell could go a long way toward convincing us of that by not picking up a stupid personal foul penalty this Sunday.

To kneel or not to kneel?

> Should Shonn Greene have taken a knee instead of scoring in the waning minutes of the Jets-Pats game Sunday? Absolutely. And if he had, the Jets could have run out the clock without the Patriots touching the ball again (and without having to survive another onside kick). The math is simple:

Knee at 1:48, Patriots use final timeout
1st-and-10, knee at 1:48, set the ball at 1:41

2nd-and-11, knee at 1:12, set the ball at 1:05

3rd-and-12, knee at 0:36, set the ball at 0:29
4th-and-13, clock runs out

For all the work coaches do with 2-point conversion charts, they should have a simple rule of thumb here: If you have the lead with less than two minutes remaining and the opponent has zero or one timeouts, take the knee instead of score as long as it gives you a first down.

Of course, taking the knee would be a Patriot-like thing to do. If Greene does it, there would have been no reason for the Jet’s full-scale-showboating-fat-coach-waddling-down-the-sideline celebration – and you get the sense that type of this is more important to the psyche of that team.

Piling on Mendenhall

> Sports Illustrated’s Peter King provided the first bit of bulletin board material for the week, saying in his “Monday Morning Quarterback" column that “I think Rashard Mendenhall, two touchdowns Saturday and all, is just not a big-time back.” Combine that with the fact that the Jets went to the league statisticians after their last game with the Steelers and requested requesting that one yard be deducted from Mendehall’s rushing total because of the officiating mistake in the game (the Elias Sports Bureau concurred, taking Mendehall's total from 100 to 99 yards) and you should have all the motivation you need for an inspired performance from No. 34 this weekend.

Divisional weekend wrapup...

2011-01-16T17:20:00.001-08:00

Jets-Steelers early thoughts
> You’ll hear one million times this week that Santonio Holmes has “grown up” since he left Pittsburgh, but you won’t hear one person ask him this question: “Santonio, do you still smoke marijuana?”

> By the way, it’s amazing how many paid football commentators still say “San Antonio” and not as a joke.

> Of course, the New York papers will go crazy this week looking for a Steelers player to say something stupid and we have serious doubts about a couple of guys’ ability to avoid doing so. Antonio Brown, we’re looking at you.

> 6:30 p.m. kickoff = Drunker fans than usual.

> Early (and expected) line: Steelers open as 3-point favorites.
> Coaching will play a huge role in this game as you’ve got two teams trying to avoid a letdown, one over having beaten New England and one over not having to play New England.

Ravens-Steelers addendum

> Starting in 1986, football fans in western Pennsylvania could count on one thing: winning a football game when Vinny Testaverde was the opposing quarterback. Of course, it started with Pete Giftopoulos in the national championship, but it reached its peak when Testaverde went to the Browns. Our friends used to revel in our winning formula: Get a lead and just let Vinny be Vinny. To the rest of the world, Testaverde was still a respected signalcaller, but to us, a whipping boy. By now, you know where this is going. Joe Flacco even has Vinny’s unibrow.

> It’s hard not to get excited about the Steelers young receiving corps. We’ve seen flashes of greatness from three young players and each seems to fit a different role. You’ve got a burner (Mike Wallace), a jitterbug (Antonio Brown) and a technician (Emmanuel Sanders). All we need is a tower. Now, where would we ever find a tall, outside receiver? Hmmmmm. We’re not giving up on you yet, Limas. Keep the faith.

> Since most of the mainstream media are having trouble with this, we’ll clear it up for you. The NFL did NOT warn players not to talk trash. It said that if a player threatens another player physically before a game THEN delivers an illegal hit in the game it will take that threat into account when assessing a fine. Our question is: Did they really need to make a production number out of this? Isn’t that just common sense?

> In case you haven’t followed the mourning after in Baltimore: Kujos to T.J. Houshmanzadeh, who owned his huge mistake, while Anquan Boldin refused to do the same.

Jets 28, Patriots 21

> A very astute point was made by Tom Jackson on ESPN Sunday morning regarding Wes Welker’s shenanigans. He said Welker’s actions were out of character and he always worries about any team acting out of character heading into a big game. Six hours later, Welker was in Bill Belichick’s doghouse, Tom Brady was in a rare funk and the Patriots were sunk.
> The Jets defense played well, no doubt, but it didn’t seem like the kind of effort that would put Brady so far off the tracks. Chalk at least part of that game up to a rare Brady stinker.

> How they found a pair of pants large enough to be baggy on Alge Crumpler we’ll never know.

> Sweet tweet -- @untouchablejay4 (Terrell Suggs): Aaaahhhhhhh, look like Tommy will be with me. (Blogger’s note: …at the Pro Bowl, which The Hoodie now must coach. Priceless!)

Bears 35, Seahawks 24
> Matt Hasselbeck played at an elite level in this game. His receivers were atrocious. They wanted no part of even competing, let alone winning.
> Still, the Bears deserved to lose based solely on the fact they allowed Matt Forte to throw a pass out of the Wildcat formation with a 28-3 lead.
> Another windy, cold afternoon next Sunday in Chicago could help bring Aaron Rodgers back to mortality.
> We feel really bad for you Eagles fans who have to watch that Fox drek full time.

> Sweet tweet -- @fauxjohnmadden: I’m holding out hope Siragusa gets his tongue stuck on the goalpost.

Packers 1,245,312, Falcons 21

> OK, that only seemed like the score, but what a show Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense put on. But if we were a Green Bay fan, we’d be concerned about being too perfect, too soon. Remember, that same offense scored 10 or fewer points three times this season.
> The same “analysts” who were calling Michael Vick an “unstoppable force” two months ago are now calling Rodgers the same. He’s a force, no doubt. But he’s stoppable.

> If there ever were a perfect argument for reseeding the playoffs based on record it was this game. The Falcons work hard all year to gain the #1 seed and then THAT shows up?
> Green Bay’s Achilles heel is their offensive line and Chicago is a team that can take advantage of that – not that we’d bet they will.
> Sweet tweet -- @sportsguy33: I’ve got a new nickname for Matt Ryan. “Matt.”

Bleeding Black and Gold: Ravens-Steelers wrap...

2011-01-15T18:49:00.000-08:00

DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS: Pittsburgh 31, Baltimore 24

EARNING THEIR STRIPES

Steelers overcome officiating chaos, their own mistakes to advance

It was over when:

> T.J. Houshmanzadeh, who’d loudly campaigned to be a bigger part of the Ravens offense, dropped a sure first-down catch on a 4^th-and-18 play with just over a minute remaining. Housh’s drop came about six minutes after Anquan Boldin dropped a sure touchdown on a critical third-down play. Those two drops just might have signaled the end of the Cam Cameron era in Baltimore.

Play of the day:

> On 3^rd-and-19 from their own 38 with 2:07 remaining, the Ravens telegraphed a three-man rush, which allowed Ben Roethlisberger to sit in the pocket and let the safeties move toward Mike Wallace before lofting a rainbow to rookie Antonio Brown, who beat Lardarius Webb for a 58-yard gain to the Ravens 4. Brown’s helmet earned MVP honors when the receiver maintained possession of the catch by holding the ball against his head a la David Tyree.

Zebra hunting:

> Where to even begin on the officiating? How about here: There should be an investigation into how Jeff Triplette was assigned to that game. The NFL claims to assign postseason referees based on their regular-season grades, but that can’t possibly be true in this instance. The guy is clueless and EVERYONE knows it. Coaches know. Players know it. Other officials know it. And a part-time blogger sitting in Altoona knows it. Yet, there he was with a crew that’s not even his own crew. (Christ, he has a hard enough time figuring things out when he works with the same guys every week, let alone putting him on the field with a bunch of strangers.) As we tweeted to NFL spokesman Greg Aiello during the game, the system that put that guy there is a bigger danger to the NFL than any violent hit or trash talking ever will be.
> That said, the officiating screwups certainly affected both teams and probably balanced out by the end of the game.

> We had both long pass interferences in the first quarter as no calls. More importantly, Mike Wallace has got to STOP breaking off routes and looking for pass interference! Dude is fast, but we’re not sold on him yet. He also should have scored on that jet sweep (as Dan Dierdorf correctly noted).

> Chris Kemoeatu, of course, should have had two personal fouls called against him for piling on. The guy is bonehead – and one hell of a run blocker. You take the bad with the good.

> It looked to our black-and-gold tinged eyes like Terrell Suggs got dangerously close to the knees on the play where Roethlisberger was hobbled then dangerously close to the head on the sack-strip-ball-lays-on-the-field-for-a-full-seven-seconds-before-a-fat-Raven-picks-it-up-and-scores play.

Hot topics:

> How slow did Hines Ward look on the one ball he caught in the open field? Rhetorical. Very. But how clutch was the old man on his TD catch and on that critical, critical 3^rd-and-10 pickup on the Steelers winning drive? Rhetorical. Very. Ward can’t be a No. 1 receiver anymore, but he can still be very effective in tight quarters and goal-line situations as long as Roethlisberger is the quarterback.

> As mentioned and feared by many, the Steelers survived, but at a cost. James Harrison, Ike Taylor, Ziggy Hood, Bryant McFadden, Jonathan Scott and Will Allen all suffered injuries during the game. All except Allen returned or kept playing but all will be less than 100 percent next week.

> As noted here many times, Roethlisberger is a notoriously bad quarterback sneaker, despite the popular opinion that he’s a good one. It’s only because the Ravens defense was sucking wind that Roethlisberger converted on that fourth-quarter, fourth-down sneak on his FOURTH effort.

> Did we see Ziggy Hood’s coming out party? Or was the Ravens O line just that bad?

Game (mis)management:

> Although he should not have HAD to use a challenge on the opening kickoff, it was silly for Mike Tomlin to use one for a 14-yard benefit.

> Although it worked out well, the Steelers timeout at 2:07 could have been a fatal mistake as it could have served as a free clock stoppage for the Ravens in a tie game. On 3^rd-and-short, it’s fine to use a TO there to preserve the pass-run option, but on 3^rd-and-long, it’s a no-no.

Paralysis by analysis:
> We were somewhat relieve to hear Greg Gumbel have a good game. He was clear and concise and made very few mistakes.

> Dierdorf was terrible, as always. He provides so little insight into “why” things are happening. For example, neither Mike Wallace nor Anquan Boldin was a factor in that game and we got no explanation why.

And now a word from our sponsors:

> What in the wide, wide world of sports was that Pepsi Max NFL audible rap spot? Young adults will find it cheesy and older people just hear gibberish.

> Mayhem as a typically clueless GPS? Brilliant!

> Hey Bing! Love your commercials, hate your product.

Sweet tweets:

@BridgeNSA: Knowing the NFL, Ryan Clark will get fined for knocking out his own guy.
@jimwexell: Whaddya think? Go five wides? Single block Suggs with Jonathan Scott?
@dandrea15: Dierdorf calling himself an analyst? Hilarious.

@ShalomShuli: F*cking pump fakes are killing me! (@pgadbois replied: That’s what she said!)
@15MinutesBlog: Michael Oher continues to be “quick off the ball” and by that we mean “false start on every damn pass play.”

We were right:

> We won’t even count the officiating thing. That was easy. Although Jeremy Kapinos punted better than we expected, the Raven’s still gained a huge advantage from the punt game.

We were wrong:
> Willis McGahee didn’t score and Big Ben did not throw a pick – again.

Next week:
> It’s one of those situations where we think if the Jets did somehow win, the Steelers would let down next week at home against them. No, the Steelers need to go to New England next week and find out what they’re made of – for real.

Ravens-Steelers pregame stretch

2011-01-14T03:46:00.000-08:00

BLEEDING BLACK AND GOLD

At a glance

#5 Baltimore (13-4) vs. #2 Pittsburgh (12-4)

4:30 p.m. Saturday, CBS

Broadcasters: Greg Gumbel and Dan Dierdorf

Annoyance factor: This pair was atrocious a few weeks ago on the Steelers-Bengals game. This might be Gumbel’s last year as the CBS’ No. 2 play-by-play guy (are those Gus Johnson’s footsteps we hear?) and Dierdorf simply does not do his homework. But … it does provide a lot of good blog fodder.

Referee: Jeff Triplette … no, seriously, it’s Jeff Triplette

Competence factor: Is there a factor for negative competence? There are many who consider Triplette the worst referee in the NFL. (We consider him the Gerald Ford of NFL white hats.) His crew annually is among the most over-officious (thanks Marv!) and he struggles especially in properly administering replay challenges where he’s prone to say things like this. But obviously the folks in the league office are not of the same opinion. They think so much of him (and he obviously was graded highly enough by someone) that they assigned him to what could be one of the most vicious, unruly and important games of the year. If it sounds like a recipe for disaster, it is, and there’s a real chance we’ll all be sitting here Saturday night not talking about a great football game, but rather talking about a horrendous call. You can only hope your team ends up on the right side of it.

Smarts say: The Steelers opened as 3-point favorite, which means Vegas thinks these teams are dead even. Since each team already has won on the other’s home field and this game is at Heinz Field, we’d be very surprised if this line doesn’t drop to Steelers -2.5 by kickoff. The over/under is 37 so Vegas is thinking 20-17 Steelers.

The Ravens ‘secret’ edge

A very wise chatter (we think it might have been one of the guys from www.FreeTankCarter.com) asked P-G scribe Ed Bouchette this week if he was worried about the Steelers' punting game entering the playoffs. Bouchette, who's not too thrilled to be forced to do an Internet chat anyway, snapped back that there were plenty of more important things for Pittsburgh fans to worry about. If you've read this blog, you know that we disagree. We think poor punting, or inappropriate punting to be more precise, is the Steelers No. 2 problem behind "can't block no one no how." The issue will be on display again Saturday as Sam Koch, one of the craftiest punters in the league, drops a few of his velcro bombs (Koch had a punt last week at Kansas City that bounced at the 1-yard-line and stuck at the 18-inch line) inside the Steelers' 10. Meanwhile, like Daniel Sepulveda before him, Jeremy Kapinos will either kick the ball into the end zone or hang it between the 15 and 20. Over the course of a football game, that kind of field positon exchange can lead to a 4- to 8-point swing in a game (don't forget a great punt set up the Jets' safety). As much as any other factor, that kind of punting cost the Steelers the game against the Jets and it very well could happen again. Be worried. Be very, very worried.

Heinz catch up

> New sod was laid at Heinz Field as soon as the NHL’s Winter Classic ended (you can see the cool time-lapse video here) and the temperature has not been above freezing since with very little sunshine, which means that sod has not taken root at all. Two of last weekend’s games (in Kansas City and Philadelphia) were played on dead sod, but in dry conditions. Should Pittsburgh get some snow during Saturday’s game it could get interesting with the footing.

> Speaking of the Winter Classic, how bad was the Penguin’s luck with the weather there? From December 13-28, the temperature did not rise above freezing in the city. From December 29-January 4, the temperature was above freezing each day, reaching a high of 61 on New Year’s Eve. Of course, from January 5 through today, the temperature once again did not crack freezing.

The pick

Any prediction on this game is mere guesswork at this point. But here are two pre-predictions before the big prediction:
> Willis McGahee will score a touchdown in this game. (He always does against the Steelers.)
> Ben Roethlisberger will throw an early interception. (There’s been too much hype this week about Ben’s pick-free streak and “new” delivery.)

Beyond that, these teams are as even as teams get in the NFL and this game could turn on a lucky bounce, a refereeing foulup or a late turnover.

All the trends favor the Steelers – Ravens are 2-6 in last eight at Heinz Field; Roethlisberger is 6-1 vs. Ravens; Steelers are 8-0 vs. division foes in the playoffs – but if the teams really are so even shouldn’t those trends start to turn around? That’s a rhetorical question and we don’t like the answer so let’s move on.

This game could hinge on which team makes better use of its speed players. If Ray Rice or Donte Stallworth score (amazingly, Rice has never scored a TD against Pittsburgh), that’s a sign the Ravens have the upper hand. If Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown or Emmanuel Sanders find paydirt, it’s likely the Steelers’ game. If none of the guys get going, we could be 10-10 in the fourth quarter.

In our prediction for the last Steelers-Ravens encounter we cited Joe Flacco’s lack of pocket awareness as a potential deciding factor and – voila! – a crucial blindside strip/sack late opens the door for a Steelers win (in a game where Pittsburgh played very, very poorly otherwise).
Our sneaking hunch this week involves Mr. Flacco, a Steelers cornerback and a final of … Steelers 15-14.

Divisional round picks

Green Bay (+2.5) at Atlanta

8 p.m., Saturday, FOX

Announcers: Joe Buck, Troy Aikman

Referee: John Parry

Entering the playoffs, we believed the winner of the Packers-Eagles game was going to the Super Bowl and we feel more strongly about that now. Yes, Matty Ice and the Falcons are very good at home, but that turf will also enhance all of the Packers considerable assets. After getting an “out of nowhere” rushing boost from a running back whose name we have to go double check right now, right, James Starks, we expect this game to be all about Aaron Rodgers separating himself from Matt Ryan … Pack 33-24.

Seattle (+10) at Chicago

1 p.m., Sunday, FOX

Announcers: Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston and Tony Siragusa

Referee: Al Riveron

The last time the Seahawks came to Chicago they soundly thumped the Bears, knocking us out of our totally legal $20,000 prize survivor league in the process. So we’ll relish in the home team getting its payback this weekend. Seattle is not a very good football team. They caught a wing and a prayer last week. That’s unlikely to happen this week, although the specter of a Jay Cutler implosion is always on the horizon for the Bears. We do expect the Seahawks to stay in this game because of the confidence their quarterback is playing with right now, but in the end, it ain’t Qwest Field, it ain’t the Saints defense and it ain’t happening … Da Bears 28-17.

New York Jets (+8.5) at New England

4:30 p.m. Sunday, CBS
Announcers: Jim Nantz, Phil Simms

Referee: Bill Leavy

We don’t even know where to begin in discussing how the Jets have lost this game before it even starts. OK, we’ll begin with Rex Ryan’s lame and transparent attempt at psychological warfare in calling out The Hoodie and Tom Brady (in the not-so-hard-to-discern hope that would draw attention and pressure onto the coach and away from the players). Fail. You can’t beat Belichick by playing psychological games with him. You outscheme and outexecute him. Period. Then, Antonio Cromartie became the latest in a long line of big mouths about to learn the first lesson of beating the Patriots is DON’T TALK ABOUT BEATING THE PATRIOTS and especially don’t take direct shots at Brady. No matter how you feel about Brady personally, dude is an assassin. Cold blodded. And he’s about to hang Cromartie’s scalp on his wall right beside Brian Urlacher’s (one row up and two over from Anthony Smth). Here’s how you beat Brady: You get in his face on the football field, not in the press. One, he doesn’t like. The other, he loves. Wanna guess which is which? … Patriots 38-20.

Wild Card Weekend wrapup…

2011-01-09T16:59:00.000-08:00

Ravens 30, Chiefs 7

> Headline: STORMING THE CASSEL / Veteran Ravens D forces Chiefs into multiple mistakes in romp

> There’s no doubt where the initial focus will be on next week’s Steelers-Ravens III: Todd Heap. The veteran tight end absolutely killed the Chiefs Sunday in Baltimore’s wild card win and a lot will be made of the fact that he was hurt on the first offensive play in the last Pittsburgh game. Add in the fact that the Steelers have struggled covering tight ends all year and you’ve got the first big story in what will be a week of big stories.

> Brother John made an excellent point in declaring he didn’t want to meet the Ravens next week. “It’s not that I don’t think we can beat them,” he said. “I just don’t think we’ll have enough players healthy for the AFC Championship Game.” He’s probably right.

> If you are a Kansas City Chiefs fan, you’ve got a lot to be excited about with that collection of young talent. But there are real questions about whether the Chiefs have the right quarterback and right coach to take advantage of the bounty of their recent drafts.

> Sweet tweet: @15MinutesBlog (Ray Eckenrode) Chiefs are frustrated. Apparently, they were unaware that Oher is allowed to false start, hold.

> Sweet tweet: @WhitlockJason (Jason Whitlock) Denny Green: The Chiefs are who we thought the Seahawks were.

Packers 21, Eagles 16

> Headline: WON IF BY LAND / Eagles eliminated as Packers rookie runs roughshod

> Mike McCarthy is very similar to Mike Tomlin in that he’s an excellent coach who sometimes can’t get out of his own way on gameday. McCarthy’s clock mismanagement before halftime Sunday, which likely cost the Packers three points (after James Jones’ drop cost them seven), was borderline criminal. Fortunately for McCarthy, David Akers brought his pull hook with him Sunday.
> Sure, Mike Vick was banged up and couldn’t take full advantage of his legs, but he lost that game with his brain. Vick made bad decision after bad decision in throwing the football, culminated with the mother of all bad decisions, trying to force a ball over Tramon Williams.

> Sweet tweet: @CdrEck (John Eckenrode) The hit on Celek looked just like Ryan Clark’s hit on Braylon Edwards except for … you know.

Seattle 41, New Orleans 36

> Headline: NORTHWEST PASSAGE / Lynch’s run for the ages propels Seahawks to upset

> As it always does in this infernal information age, the hype for Marshawn Lynch’s run as “the greatest of all time” began just seconds after Lynch landed in the end zone. But given 24 hours to reflect (an epoch in Inernet time), we agree it should be in the discussion with perhaps only Marcus Allen’s reversal of field for 74 yards in Super Bowl XVIII as a challenger. For pure excitement factor, though, we think James Harrison’s million-yard interception return in Super Bowl XLII nudges out both those plays.

> Sweet tweet: @sportsguy33(Bill Simmons) Worst performance today: Roman Harper, Gregg Williams, the Saints kick returners or the ads for new NBC shows?

New York Jets 17, Indianapolis 16

> Headline: QUITE A FEAT / Folk’s FG gives Jets, Ryan first playoff win over Peyton
> The Colts lost to the Jets much the same way the Steelers did, by not taking advantage of Mark Sanchez’s early poor play. With the way he was throwing the ball, if you put that guy in a two TD hole in the first half, he’s going to crack completely. Instead, the Colts played one of those “two boxers feeling each other out” first quarters and before they knew it, they were in a one-score game in the fourth quarter. Hopefully, the Steelers will take note should they meet the Jets again.

> Rex Ryan already has broken the first rule of beating the Patriots: Don’t talk about beating the Patriots. We wouldn’t be surprised if Rex is trying to work out a trade for Anthony Smith as we speak.

> Sweet tweet: @McShay13 (Todd McShay) Adam Vinatieri is stupid good.

Wild Card Weekend pregame stretch...

2011-01-06T17:57:00.000-08:00

Wild Card Saturday picks

New Orleans (-10.5) at Seattle

4:30 p.m., NBC

This seems like one of those games that is such a sure thing that it’s not a sure thing. Of course, there’s no way the defending Super Bowl champ can lose to a 7-9 team that just might end up being quarterbacked by Sideline Jesus (Charlie Whitehurst for the uninitiatied), right? Right? Of course there is, but it involves Drew Brees throwing five picks and Leon Washington running a kick back for a score. Long odds? Sure, but not impossible. As the wise Pat Kirwan said this week on Sirius: “Those are 53 NFL players on their home field. That’s nothing to laugh about.” Of course, PattyK went on to pick New Orleans 30-14, but you get the point. … Saints 28-20.

New York Jets (+2.5) at Indianapolis

8 p.m., NBC

These are not your father’s Colts. This is an average football team being dragged to victories by the iron will and strong right arm of Peyton Manning. And these are not last year’s Jets. Their defense is not nearly as good as it was a year ago. Which brings us to a very important key to look for early in this game: How much contact are the referees (it’s Gene Steratore’s crew) going to allow New York’s secondary, especially Antonio Cromartie, to maintain with the Colts’ receivers? If it’s called like the Steelers game, when Cromartie and Darrelle Revis held the Pittsburgh receivers like they were in a rodeo, the Jets have a real chance here. If the five-yard rule is called strictly, Manning will destroy the Jets and head to Pittsburgh. That’s how we’re leaning … Colts 35-24.

Wild Card Sunday picks

Baltimore (-3) at Kansas City

1 p.m., CBS

Although they'll never admit it, the Ravens collectively breathed a sigh of relief when they avoided Peyton Manning in the Wild Card Round. For that reason, we expect Baltimore to come out a little flat in this game, maybe even trailing at the half. However, we don't think the Chiefs have the chops to take advantage of that. And if Cam Cameron remembers to get Ray Rice 25 touches in this game, the Ravens will eventually overcome KC. If, for some reason, they have Joe Flacco throwing the ball late in the game, Tamba Hali has the ability to flip this outcome with a sack-strip. Don't do it, Cam ... Ravens 24-21.

Green Bay (+2.5) at Philadelphia

4:30 p.m., FOX

Every rational fiber of our brain tells us the Packers should win this game with Aaron Rodgers and those receivers and that pass rush and those corners and the funk the Eagles have been in. We've seen it said several places this week that Green Bay might be the best sixth seed ever and we'd have a hard time disagreeing with that. So, of course, we're picking Philadelphia -- and we're doing it, not because we think Michael Vick is going to dominate but because we think Shady McCoy might ... Eagles 34-31.

Slants and post patterns

+ As you know, Trent Dilfer is already our favorite NFL analyst and he took another quantum leap this week when he asserted on Bill Simmons podcast that tipping balls at the line of scrimmage is the key to stopping the Patriots offense. If you’ve ever watched a football game with us in person, you know we are a huge advocate of that technique. It’s the most underrated skill/strategy in the game right now. The Steelers don’t do enough of it, but Brett Kiesel is the best at it in black and gold.

+ Our friends over at Advanced NFL Stats had a very interesting story this week asserting that Billy Cundiff’s 40 touchbacks for the Ravens this season is the equivalent, as far as the impact on field position and final outcome, of a player having 20 sacks. Of course, all these statistical hypotheses are up for interpretation, but do you know how much a player who had 20 sacks would be paid on the open market? About eight times Cundiff’s $1.2 million.
+ On the refereeing front, there’s good news for the Steelers as two perennial problem officials, Walt Coleman and Pete Morelli, are working wild card weekend and won’t be in the mix for the divisional and championship round games. There’s also bad news as Gene Steratore and Mike Carey, probably the two best officials in the league right now, also are working wild card games. Eight highly-graded crews will work the first two weeks of the playoffs and then "all-star" crews, selected mostly on merit (although seniority and politics play a role, as well) work the conference championships and Super Bowl. Last year’s Super Bowl referee was Scott Green. There are only six active white hats who’ve worked as referee in a Super Bowl so it’s possible this year’s choice will be a first timer.

NFL Notebook: Critical coaching moves loom...

2011-01-04T03:01:00.001-08:00

AFC North dynamic could change

A couple of coaching decisions this week, in Cleveland and Cincinnati, will have long-term ramifications for the Steelers.

In Cleveland, Mike Holmgren is looking to bring in a guy who will run a West Coast offense and Tampa-2 defense and once-fired Marty Mornhingwheg might be the guy. Now, far be it for us to question the wisdom of Holmgren, but, but, but…West Coast offenses sometimes struggle in bad weather situations and you can run on Tampa-2 defenses. Now, does that sound like a winning formula in the AFC North?
In Cincinnati, Marvin Lewis has finally drawn a line in the sand, threatening to walk if owner Mike Brown won’t hire scouts, build an indoor practice facility and agree to stop signing train wrecks. If Lewis gets his way, the Bengals could be in line to finally make some steady improvement. If Brown lets him go, look for the Bengals to remain the Bungles for years to come.

Coordinator-to-coach moves gain traction
Speaking of Mornhingwheg being once-fired, consider this as coaches are fired, hired, interviewed and overlooked in the next few weeks: Of the 12 teams still standing, 10 of them are coached by former NFL coordinators who were low-profile, first-tme head coach hires (a la Leslie Frazier and Jason Garrett). The other two are an NFL retread who goes by the name of Belichick and the rare dual NFL retread/Hot college prospect Pete Carroll. Obviously, that bodes well for guys like Rob Ryan, Ron Rivera and maybe, finally Russ Grimm.

The best of the NFC Worst

The Seahawks don’t owe anyone an apology for qualifying for the playoffs with a 7-9 record. However, their radio play-by-play guy, Steve Raible, should probably check himself. Among his celebratory declarations after Seattle beat the Rams in The Worst NFL Game Ever Played (yes, it gets capital letters):
> “Congratulations 12^th man! You’re getting a home playoff game and you earned it!!” (Blogger’s note: Seattle was 5-3 at home. Sixteen other NFL teams had equal or better home records.)

> “Make room for another banner!” (Honestly, hanging a banner after a 7-9 season is nothing but a celebration of mediocrity. Now, if they win four playoff games, they can hang THAT banner.)
The absurdity of the situation is best captured by this tidbit: If the Seahawks had lost Sunday night they’d have gotten the eighth pick in the 2011 draft.

Slants and post patterns
> The Steelers will pick between 25^th and 32^nd in next April’s draft.

> Keyshawn Johnson said on ESPN Sunday he thought the Ravens were more dangerous in the playoffs than the Steelers because the Steelers “need to be at home.” The Steelers, of course, finished 7-1 on the road this year, a considerably better record than Keyshawn.
> Bill Simmons had the tweet of the year Sunday night about The Worst NFL Game Ever Played. @sportsguy33: This game is like watching two drunk uncles trying to play Madden on their nephew’s PS3.

Steelers/AFC playoff primer...

2011-01-02T16:28:00.001-08:00

Wild Card round
> New York JETS, #6 seed, 11-5

VS.

> Indianapolis COLTS, #3 seed, 10-6

---------------

> Baltimore RAVENS, #5 seed, 12-4
VS.
Kansas City CHIEFS, #4 seed, 10-6

---------------
> Pittsburgh STEELERS, #2 seed, 12-4, BYE

> New England PATRIOTS, #1 seed, 14-2, BYE

Analysis: Baltimore is likely to be favored against the Chiefs but neither team has much momentum. The Jets would seem to be better equipped to deal with Peyton Manning and the Colts this year in a rematch of the last year’s conference title game.

Possible Divisional Round matchup for the Steelers
> Indianapolis would come to Pittsburgh if they beat the Jets
> Kansas City would come to Pittsburgh if they beat the Ravens and the Jets beat the Colts
> Baltimore could come to Pittsburgh if they beat the Chiefs and the Jets beat the Colts

Analysis: Obviously, Indy is the most likely Steelers opponent and while no one wants to see Manning in the playoffs you’d much rather see him on grass in wind and cold.

Possible AFC Championship round matchups for the Steelers

> New York would have to beat the Colts and Pats on the road to earn a return trip to Heinz Field.

> Baltimore would have to beat the Chiefs and Pats on the road to set up the mother of all AFC Championship games.

> Kansas City could only play in Pittsburgh for the AFC title if they beat the Ravens and Patriots.

> New England would host Pittsburgh for the AFC title if both teams win their Divisional Round games.

Analysis: Most experts believe the Ravens have the best chance to beat the Patriots. If that would happen, and the Steelers take care of business, the hype around the ensuing game would be off the charts. In contrast, should Pittsburgh win their divisional game and have to go to New England for the title game the story will be how the Steelers can’t beat the Patriots in big games (and they’d be wise to keep their mouths shut and let that be the story).

Steelers-Browns wrapup...

2011-01-02T14:02:00.000-08:00

Bleeding Black and Gold…

WEEK 17: Pittsburgh 41, Cleveland 9

PLANTING A SEED

Steelers cruise, secure rest and home playoff game

It was over when:

+ Although it certainly wasn’t over mathematically, this game ended for all intents and purposes when Robert Royal couldn’t hang onto two catchable touchdown passes early in the second quarter that would have made it 14-7 and Eric Mangini decided to settle for a field goal on 4^th-and-goal from the 2.

Play of the day:

+ Teams had pretty much shut down the Roethlisberger-to-Wallace 9-route bombs for the past month by playing a Cover-2 shell almost exclusively. So, of course, the Browns came out with a single safety on their first defensive play of the game, Roethlisberger recognized it immediately, and T.J. Ward had no chance of catching Wallace on his 56-yard TD catch.

Hot topics:

+ Priority #1 was to win this game. Priority #2 was to avoid any further injuries and it looks fairly good on that front. James Harrison left for a few plays in the first half but returned to play most of the second half. Bryant McFadden apparently aggravated his groin injury. Most seriously, Maurkice Pouncey departed in the third quarter with a stinger. Let’s wait and see, but it didn’t seem like Pouncey was seriously hurt as the medical staff left him alone and he never left for xrays.

+ We have a hard time understanding why Bruce Arians called a trick play to score a meaningless touchdown while leading 31-3, especially when there were so many critical junctures this season in the red zone when a gadget might have worked. The only thing we can think of – and this is a stretch – is that the Steelers are setting something up off that formation and look.

Game (mis)management:

+ Mangini was trainwreck these past two weeks. With a chance to take the lead before halftime against the Ravens last week, he played for a field goal to keep it close. After having done that and gotten it close, he tried an onside kick to start the second half. Then, trailing 14-0 against the Steelers with absolutely nothing to lose, he went for a FG instead of a touchdown. As we tweeted during the game: Dead Coach Walking.

Paralysis by analysis:
+ As we said beforehand, Fouts does nothing for us as an analyst. He’s either too obvious or just plain wrong as he was when trying to make a point about the Browns not going for it on 4^th-and-goal. On the Steelers next drive, he set up a goal-line play by saying, “You can bet the Steelers won’t go for a field goal here.” We should hope not. It was third down.

+ You know how we feel about gimmicks like the “Fouts’ Focus.” This time, we learned that the Steelers use a lot of stunts and twists on their blitzes. A revelation!

Zebra hunting:

+ The Steelers made sure Referee Ron Winter’s crew couldn’t botch this one, but, to be fair, the officials stayed out of the way and Winter was nails on three replay challenges.

And now a word from our sponsors:

+ How funny (and sad) is it that WTAJ uses that Stormtracker commercial showing all the slip and slide accidents and none of that footage is from here?
+ Dear Domino’s, I love your pizza, but when you make a commercial that has people thinking about the logistics of how you made the commercial (what kind of focus group is held in a moving vehicle?) rather than the message of the commercial then you’ve made a bad commercial.

Sweet tweets:

@15MinutesBlog: Ryan Clark’s white gloves fit, Referee Ron Winter must acquit.

@sjflynn: 141.3 quarterback rating for Big Ben. Me likey.

@prok2: Dear Ravens, enjoy second place and your upcoming road trip.

@atlasmcb: Dear Steelers, thank you for putting the nails in Mangini’s coffin.

We were right:

+Ben Roethlisberger has been just a tick off for the past month and we firmly believe that “tick” can allow the Steelers to beat the Patriots and win a seventh Super Bowl. We said we expected a big game from Roethlisberger Sunday and they don’t get much bigger. Of course, doing that against the Browns defense is one thing…

We were wrong:
+ We really expected the Browns to compete in this game and make it nerve-wracking into the fourth quarter (as the Bengals-Ravens game was) but we were happily wrong.

Playoffs? Playoffs!:
+ We’ll be back this evening with a playoff update, but suffice to say things went well for the Steelers Sunday with the dream scenario of the Ravens upsetting New England in the divisional round then coming to Pittsburgh for the mother of all AFC Championship games getting a boost when the Chiefs lost. That’s all we’re going to say about that right now.

Next season:
+ Assuming there is professional football, the Steelers 2011 schedule was finalized Sunday. Times and dates for the games will be released in April.

Away: San Francisco, Arizona, Indianapolis, Houston, Baltimore, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Kansas City

Home: Tennessee, Seattle, St. Louis, Jacksonville, Baltimore, Cleveland, Cincinnati, New England

Outback Bowl wrapup...

2011-01-01T14:39:00.000-08:00

BETWEEN THE LIONS: Florida 37, Penn State 24

MATT-RICIDE

McGloin’s five picks kill PSU in ugly loss

It was over when:

+ With Penn State driving for the game-winning score, Matt McGloin underthrew his 127^th pass of the day and Florida DB Ahmad Black took the gift-wrapped INT 80 yards for the clinching score with 0:55 remaining.

Play of the day:

+ This is in no way, shape or form, an attempt to blame the officials for Penn State’s loss, however the momentum in the game absolutely turned on the atrocious pass interference call on Malcolm Willis early in the fourth quarter on a 3^rd-and-11 play that took the Gators from attempting a field goal to get within 24-23 to scoring a TD to take the lead for good.

Hot topics:

+ In a game that meant nothing, and with McGloin struggling so mightily so early, it seems indefensible that Rob Bolden did not get a series or two at quarterback. Honestly, Shane McGregor would have given the Nits a better chance to win. In any event, the Penn State quarterback position is already a train wreck for 2011 with Kevin Newsome transferring while McGloin and Bolden possibly going back into the mix with Paul Jones, if he’s academically eligible.

+ The punting game was once again a disaster for Penn State with Anthony Fera and Alex Butterworth taking turns hitting short punts and Fera taking way too long on a punt Florida blocked and returned for a TD. As we noted all season, we have no idea how Fera was highly recruited.

+ One word to describe Mike Pouncey: Wow. He looks bigger than his brother and possibly more athletic. He would look very good in black and gold next fall replacing Ramon Foster at left guard.

Game (mis)management:

+ We have no idea why Penn State called timeout on 2^nd-and-goal from the 7-yard-line with 1:41 left in the first half. (Note: This is the play before they called timeout with the play clock running down.) There’s plenty of time there to run your offense without a timeout. At the very least, you could force Florida to use one of their three timeouts. PSU wasn’t trying to set up a play because they came back and ran an iso. So, instead of taking a three-point lead with about :15 left in the half, they did it with :45 left. Luckily, Florida’s offense was so frighteningly inept that they didn’t even try to score before halftime.

Paralysis by analysis:
+ Aside from his omnipresent “this guy” references, Gruden was clear, concise and surprisingly knowledgeable about the college game. Maybe he COULD tone down his “Chuckie” act and take a college job.

+ The ABC crew did have trouble, though, pronouncing the Penn State quarterback’s name, with Tirico offering up a McGroin and Gruden later going with McGlynn. Both of those names, of course, are considerably less offensive than what most PSU fans were calling McGloin.

Zebra hunting:

+ The ACC crew was having an excellent day, allowing the teams to play and allowing all kinds of contact on pass plays UNTIL a crucial, horrible, 3^rd-down pass interference call on Malcom Willis set up Florida for the go-ahead score. Florida fans and some neutral observers will quickly point that the officials missed Shawney Kersey’s fumble on the ensuing kickoff (and they did) but it’s already too late by then.

And now a word from our sponsors:

+ Hey, that Direct TV “couch potato superhero” spot is very well done.

Sweet tweets:

@dougkeklak: Is there something against any game not being able to fill Raymond James Stadium?

@15MinutesBlog: God love Chris Colisanti. He’s going to do great things with the Health and Human Development degree.

@IHateJJReddick: Like the commercial says almost every player from this Florida/Penn State game is going pro in something other than football.

@CdrEck: PSU punter with a Sepulveda-esque kick. (Blogger’s note: This was on Butterworth’s 50-yd touchback. We’ve never seen punting at such a low point in both college and the NFL game. There’s money to be made there by some of these high school and college soccer stars.)

We were right (sort of):

+ We had Penn State 31-28 and we were heading to Penn State 31-30 until … you know.

We were wrong:
+ We thought Michael Mauti’s return would help the Nits defense deal with Florida’s speed, but Mauti was virtually invisible (although D’Anton Lynn and Devon Still were stout).

Next year:
+ We know Joe said he thinks Penn State can field a pretty good football team next year, but, honestly, we have a hard time seeing it. There’s talent on offense, but no experienced and/or trustable quarterback. There are a lot of guys back on defense, but none of them are elite. There’s no reason to believe the kicking game and special teams will be anything other than mediocre. We’d love to be wrong, but we thing 7-5 and playing on New Year’s Day would be overachieving next year.

Steelers-Browns pregame stretch...

2010-12-31T12:57:00.000-08:00

BLEEDING BLACK AND GOLD

At a glance

Pittsburgh (11-4) vs. Clevleand (5-10)

1 p.m. Sunday, CBS

Broadcasters: Ian Eagle and Dan Fouts.

Annoyance factor: Less than it would have been if we’d have gotten Kevin Harlan and Solomon Wilcots. Fouts is considered an excellent analyst by a lot of smart people, although we’ve yet to see why, but we’ll go into this with an open mind. Hilarious sidebar: We just did a quick Google search on “Fouts Steelers Browns” and found him referred to as Dan “I Hate Cleveland” Fouts in a Browns forum and Dan “Bernie Kosar” Fouts in a Steelers forum. He must be doing something right.

Refereee: We’ve been unable to find an official assignment, but by the process of elimination it looks like either Ron Winter or Gene Steratore.

Competence factor: Talk about a life or death choice. Steratore is one of the best officials in the NFL and Winter, um, is not.

Smarts say: The Steelers opened as 6-point favorites and the line has remained steady. The over/under is 37.5 so Vegas is thinking 22-16 Steelers. You can see what the Vegas insiders think about the game when the Las Vegas Hilton’s Supercontest picks are posted here sometime Saturday afternoon.

Is there a draft in here?

It’s time for the biggest regular season game of the year, so, of course, we want to talk about the draft (sorry, that’s how we roll).

We noted back in April that, with the Steelers fielding one of the oldest teams in the league, the 2010 and 2011 drafts would be critical to the team’s ongoing long-term success. We speculated Pittsburgh would need to find five eventual starters for the draft to be considered a success. Of course, it’s still too early to make that ultimate judgment (we’ll wait for 2013 to do that) but consider this a progress report.

A review of the selections shows three starters (and one Pro Bowler) from the 2010 slate:

1 (18) Maurkice Pouncey, C (starter, All Pro)

2 (52) Jason Worilds OLB

3 (82) Emmanuel Sanders WR (starter, 3^rd receiver)

4 (116) Thaddeus Gibson DE

5 (151) Chris Scott OT

5 (164) Crezdon Butler CB

5 (166) Stevenson Sylvester LB

6 (188) Jonathan Dwyer RB

6 (195) Antonio Brown WR (starter, 4^th receiver)

7 (242) Doug Worthington DT

Second guessing first pick

When your first-round pick becomes an All Pro in his rookie season, no one could possibly second guess that pick, right? Right? Well … not so fast… We’re not going to try and bash the Maurkice Pouncey pick. He’s started from Day 1 and looks like he’s be an All Pro for the next 10 years. But … we will throw this into the mix. In selecting Pouncey, the Steelers passed over two players who seemed to fit more pressing needs.

The first was cornerback Kyle Wilson, who’s been so-so so far with the Jets. But the second, left tackle Roger Saffold of Indiana, who was predicted as the Pittsburgh pick in numerous mock drafts, is a different story.

Saffold, taken with the first pick of the second round by the Rams, has stepped into the most difficult position in football and protected Sam Bradford’s blind side like a fortress, allowing only two sacks through 15 games. He also looks like a 10-year All Pro, but he’s playing the Steelers’ most pressing position of need.

In his annual draft "do over" at SI.com, Don Banks had Saffold going fifth overall instead of 33rd. When you pick where the Steelers almost always pick in the draft (somewhere between 18 and 30) you only very rarely get a crack at a franchise left tackle. To let one get away hurts, especially when you consider that all of Pittsburgh’s AFC North foes have young studs at LT in Michael Oher in Baltimore, Joe Thomas in Cleveland and Andrew Whitworth in Cincy. The Steelers will pick somewhere after 20 this year and you can bet there won’t be a left tackle available, leaving Max Starks as the most viable option – again.

Second guessing, the sequel

As you know if you read regularly, we’re a world-class second guesser. So let’s take a look at some of our draft second guessing and see how it played out:

We said: “Take Kyle Wilson over Pouncey”

Stats say: Wilson started the season as the Jets’ nickel back but was torched early and often and hasn’t played much in the last six weeks.

The verdict: It’s still early, but we’re willing to say we were wrong.

We said: “Take Sean Lee over Worilds”

Stats say: Lee has 24 tackles for the Cowboys and, of course, his two interceptions of Peyton Manning earned him NFC Defensive Player of the Week honors in early December. Worilds was not expected to contribute immediately so his 17 tackles and two sacks, including a game clincher against the Dolphins, can be considered a pleasant surprise.

The verdict: Still out, but it’s looking like both these guys will be solid NFL starters.

We said: “Take Eric Decker over Sanders”

Stats say: Decker has four catches for 84 yards and two fumble. Sanders has 27 catches for 360 yards and two TDs and is becoming a bigger part of the offense every week.

The verdict: We were wrong.

We said: "Take LeGarrette Blount over Dwyer”

Stats say: Blount has been the surprise and steal of the 2010 draft with nearly 800 yards and 6 TDs for the Bucs. Dwyer had a sluggish preseason and has rarely been active for Pittsburgh.

The verdict: We thought taking a chance on the troubled Blount was a better idea than taking a chance on the troubled Dwyer and we were right – finally.

We said: “Take Dorin Dickerson over Brown”

Stats say: Dickerson was moved to WR by the Texans and has been buried on their depth chart behind Andre Johnson for most of the season. Brown’s kickoff return TD against Tennessee could be one of the most important plays of the Steelers season so far and he’s shown a lot in the Pittsburgh four- and five-receiver packages.

The verdict: Still out, but Brown certainly has exceeded expectations.

Fast Eddie skewers Goofball Goodell

The decision to cancel last Sunday’s Eagles-Vikings game (and the general full-scale panic inspired in this country by any kind of inclement weather) was both a farce and a shame. And Ed Rendell’s decision to expose it as such (and not back down from the NFL/ESPN PR machine when they tried to intimidate him) was funny and refreshing.

But if the Eagles and the NFL continue to espouse the argument “that many fans expressed concern” about traveling to and from the game as the basis for bagging it, they are creating one very slippery slope.

Of course fans expressed concern about traveling! That’s what people do now from November through May in the northeastern United States, they express concern. These are the same people who fill up the grocery stores two days before a forecast of six inches of snow!! And they started “expressing concern” about five days before Sunday when the weather weanies started getting them riled up about a “possible storm.” If games can be canceled because fans are “expressing concerns,” you are going to be canceling a lot of games.

We can guarantee you that thousands of Steelers fans from central Pennsylvania who must drive over Chickory Mountain to get to Heinz Field have regularly traveled in conditions much worse than what anyone would have encountered last Sunday trying to get to Lincoln Financial Field.

We live in Pennsylvania. It snows here. Always has. People need to get places. They can decide themselves if the risk involved is merited. Football games are played in any weather. Period.

Second thoughts on Ward’s level of play

We’re certainly not alone in noticing that Hines Ward production has dropped dramatically in recent weeks as his number of dropped passes has risen alarmingly. We said last week we thought he was close to the end of the line. In retrospect, we all said the same thing last year about James Farrior at this time of the season and he resurrected his level of play this year so let’s wait and see about Ward.

The pick

Colt McCoy was terrible last Sunday, looking uncomfortable and inaccurate in the cold weather. It was eerily similar to how Mark Sanchez looked against the Dolphins the week before he came into Pittsburgh and played lights out.

Peyton Hills was beastly for the Browns in the first half of the season, but he’s been gradually running out of juice (word choice intended) in the last few games. We applaud his toughness, but you just can’t withstand the level of violence with which Hillis was both receiving and delivering hits for an entire season.

But whether Hillis plays or McCoy struggles is of little consequence in this game. Assuming that Troy Polamalu doesn’t play (and we are), this game comes down to two factors:

> Can the Steelers defense and return teams keep Josh Cribbs from breaking one?

> Can Ben Roethlisberger “find” the touchdowns he’s been leaving on the field the past few weeks with high throws?

The Cribbs factor should be obvious. He’s a Steeler Killer from way back and he’s getting healthy after dislocating four, count ‘em, four toes on one of his feet about a month ago.

The Roethlisberger factor is less so. Because he’s not throwing interceptions and because he’s making those trademark scrambles, there’s a general perception that the Steelers quarterback is playing well. But every week for the past few weeks, he’s said in his postgame press conference that he doesn’t really feel that way and that the Steelers missed a few scoring chances. And he’s been right. And most of those scoring chances have gone awry because of high throws from #7. That can’t happen this week in what’s sure to be a divisional dogfight. We don’t think it will. We think the Steelers will ride their quarterback’s arm to the division title, but we’d be lying if we told we felt confident about that…Steelers 27, Browns (+6) 23.

Prediction record

Last week: Steelers to win, Panthers (+14) to cover; CORRECT, INCORRECT

(Blogger’s note: Mr. Rudel tried to convince us last week that Pittsburgh was a shoe-in to cover, but we went the other way, and as the Black and Gold were running away with the game, he texted us, “How many times have you taken the Steelers to cover this year?” Our quick-witted (and true) response: “Every time they haven’t.” So, of course, we’re turning over a new leaf in 2011 by taking the Steelers not to cover again…)

Season straight up: 8-7, .533

Against the spread: 4-11, .267

Ravens-Steelers wrap...

2010-10-03T13:04:00.001-07:00

BLEEDING BLACK AND GOLD: Baltimore 17, Pittsburgh 14

HOUSH HURTS

Old nemesis, in new uniform,
sinks Steelers with late TD grab

First quarter: Steelers 7, Ravens 0
> Steelers come out in 12 personnel (1 back, 2 TEs), announcing they’ll be running the football. The Ravens rush only three on third down and CBatch doesn’t see Heath Miller leaking out of the backfield all alone.
> Joe Flacco goes with nearly all three-step drops on first drive, which is the recipe for moving a football team between the 20s, but … tackle for loss, penalty, wind-blown missed FG and the momentum swings back to Pittsburgh.
> Shades, and we emphasize shades, of Lynn Swann’s sideline catch in Super Bowl X (the greatest catch in the history of football) on the great grab by Antwan Randle-El.

> We were worried about Houshmanzadeh. Mason is obviously going to be the issue.

Second quarter: Ravens 10, Steelers 7

> Steelers have had nothing resembling pressure yet on Flacco and he’s responded by picking the secondary apart. Willis McGahee, who always scores against Pittsburgh (your fantasy tip of the week), does so again.

> Most NFL fumble piles take five minutes to untangle. The Steelers and Ravens break into a gang fight after 30 seconds and roll 10 yards away from the guy who recovered Joe Flacco’s fumble. Hilarious.
> Steelers are obviously living on borrowed time with CBatch. Tick, tick, tick.
> Flacco, on the other hand, is playing his best game yet in Pittsburgh.

> The back judge was trying to talk the side judge out of the garbage holding call on James Harrison, but to no avail. Instead of 3^rd-and-10, the Ravens get a new set of downs. HUGE mistake by the zebras.

> Huge defensive stand by the Steelers, buoyed by the forced holding call by James Harrison, to keep the game manageable.

Third quarter: Ravens 10, Steelers 7
> Steelers very fortunate for the Ravens’ penalty on the long kick return.
> Defense does its part, but CBatch with a rookie mistake, taking a third-down sack, and on cue – doink! Tick, tick, tick.

> For as much as we’re whining about Batch, to this point he hasn’t done the one thing he couldn’t do today and that’s throw a pick.
> Flacco obliges our reverse jinx and Ike Taylor actually catches a football, but Steelers can’t get a first down and Heinz Field is in Jeff Reed’s head. Doh!

Fourth quarter: Raven 17, Steelers 14

> Are hippies really Burger King’s target market? Really?
> Ladarius Webb with two Pro Bowl-calibre plays in the fourth quarter for the Ravens.
> We had concerns Randle-El was at the end of the line, but he’s shown bursts today and should only be better considering the chemistry that he and #7 already have.
> Rashard Mendenhall looks like he can barely make it back to the huddle a couple times, but finds two bursts on two wide runs, the second putting the Steelers in front.

> Short kick, secondary loses Housh, 10-yard out to Boldin and – just like that – the Ravens are in field goal range.

> Michael Oher with a critical false start on a pass to Todd Heap that goes inside the 10 and … and … and … no call.
> Bill Gay. Nickel back. Big play.

> Officials don’t miss two false starts against the Steelers.

> The holding call on Keyaron Fox happens on every single punt in the NFL every game.

> Oher two false starts on the Ravens first two pass plays. You know how this ends. As we predicted on the day Baltimore acquired him. Houshmanzadeh with a dagger in the heart.

The final word:

> Charlie Batch did exactly what he needed to do to win this game: Not throw interceptions (when it counted). The Steelers defense was superb again. Jeff Reed’s two missed field goals and short kickoff were the difference. Losing this game shifts the whole dynamic of the Steelers’ season. They are now chasing the Ravens in the AFC North and still have to go to Baltimore. Ben Roethlisberger returns to the team at 12:01 a.m. tonight and he’ll debut at Cleveland, where the Steelers played one of the worst games in franchise history last year. That game is now a HUGE game.

2010-05-29T04:53:00.000-07:00

“And in the end / the love you take / is equal to the love you make…”
“The End,” The Beatles

'THE END' KEEPS GOING

We’ve watched “The End” several times now and we like it even more than we did last Sunday evening. Here’s what’s been knocking around inside our head the past week:

Let’s start at the end…
If this doesn’t give you chills, then you really did waste the last six years of your life.

Begin at the beginning
After rethinking six seasons, throwing out any McGuffins, forgetting about dead ends, tossing away forgotten subplots, dotting the I’s, crossing the T’s and just letting go, we think this is the parable (look it up) of “Lost”:

At its heart, this was a story about two men: Jacob and Jack. As a teenager, Jacob made a terrible mistake and brought a terrible burden into the world, he created a monster that not only threatened to destroy this world, but also the next world, the spiritual afterlife (whose origin comes from the same exotic matter – or light, if you will – that helped create this world. Thus began a centuries-long contest between Jacob and the monster that started with this one rule: They could not kill each other. (As the game went on, Jacob would make many more rules for it, as the monster had once promised him he could.) So Jacob began bringing men to the island, hoping they could help him right his wrong, kill the monster, save the world and open the gates to the afterlife. But the monster knew too well about the dark side of humanity. It was easily able to seduce the men with promises of knowledge and power and trick them into killing each other. The monster soon tired of the game. It always ended the same. His mother had told him men weren’t redeemable and now he’d seen it for his own eyes. He needed to find a loophole, kill Jacob, end this game and destroy this world of men. But Jacob wouldn’t give up. He believed men could change. He believed they were redeemable. He needed only one man to write the ending he had in mind, if he could just find that man. Then Jacob had an epiphany. He was trying to manipulate someone into doing his bidding. He needed to have them do it of their own free will. Enter Jack, a man who wanted to fix everything and everyone but couldn’t understand how to fix himself. Jacob surrounded him with a group of extraordinary people and had them live together under extraordinary circumstances. He put them all through some extraordinary tests and slowly, but surely, Jack began to understand his purpose, to feel destiny’s call. He became a man of faith. Now, Jacob made his final move in the game. He sacrificed himself to make the monster more vulnerable. The rest was now up to Jack and his friends. Although Jacob had left them many clues during their lifetimes, they had no instructions on how to defeat the monster. But they had Jack's faith. Jack believed. He looked the monster straight in the eye and promised they would kill him. And they did. But it was not without cost. Jack was gravely wounded and one final task remained. Jack made one more leap of faith to complete that task. He gave his life so they all could continue to live together in this world and the next. And they died happily ever after...

"It worked."
After all the significance given to them earlier in the season, Juliet's dying words turned out to be about a candy bar stuck in a vending machine? Can that possibly be right? Nope. In fact, that little scene just might have been the most important scene in “Lost” history.
Consider:
What did Juliet tell Sawyer to do to the vending machine in that scene? Unplug it then plug it back in. The power source was shut off and when it was turned back on, everything worked as it was supposed to.
What happened in the Cave of Light on the island? Desmond unplugged it. The light went out. Smokey became mortal. Kate killed him. Jack plugged it back in. The light returned. And in that church on the edge of time and space everything finally worked as it was supposed to.
What if Jacob's creation of the Smoke Monster somehow blocked the door to the afterlife for all of us? What if that is what really resulted in the creation of a sideways universe, Purgatory, limbo, whatever you want to call it, it's the afterlife's waiting room where people were stuck, literally, until the machine was reset? What if that's why people couldn't move on? What if that epic struggle on the island allowed the candy bar to drop, allowed the gates to paradise to be re-opened to the rest of us? What if THAT is what was at stake on "Lost"? It worked. Indeed.

Two out of three ain’t bad
We feel even more strongly now that we were right about these ideas being at the core of the “Lost” worldview:
> The island is the cradle of our world and its mythology (an idea first hatched after Season 3). We were given one last clue about that in the Sawyer-Juliet candy bar scene. The bar in the machine beside the Apollo bar Sawyer ordered was an Avalon bar. Of course, there is no real Avalon bar, but there is a mythical island called Avalon, where legend says immortals roam.
> Science and faith are really the same thing (first expressed after the Season 5 finale). Do we still need to expand on this? The light at the center of the island is what’s left of the exotic matter that helped create our universe in some kind of big bang that we still don’t fully understand. The fact that this light lays beneath an island that looks a lot like the Garden of Eden is no coincidence. Maybe the lesson of Season 6 is that we were getting too close to an answer about something men aren’t supposed to understand.
And we readily admit we were dead wrong about his longheld assertion:
> The creators of “Lost” carefully created the show from end to beginning and the conclusion to the show would be a mind-bending confluence of answers.
Um, as the kiddies say, fail.
But the silver lining to being wrong about that was that Season 6 made it pretty clear early on that it wasn’t heading that way and we had plenty of time to adjust to the mind-bending journey the writers took us on through the territories of life, death and rebirth.
We said the morning after and we’ll say it now: Based on where the first 120 hours of “Lost” left us, the final two and a half hours were perfect.

The end?
We might have one more "Lost" column in us about answers we got, answers we can deduce and answers we'll never know.
Until then, keep the faith, and remember, you’ve got to lift it up.